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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • benduan benduan Mar 8, 2013 9:38 PM Flag

    I made my mind to initiate a position now

    A short while ago, I posted a question asking if I should initiate a position. After additional DD, I jumped in now. This is based on a few observations. There is no doubt that a lot of people still doubt the validity of XIN's numbers, which is no surprise given the general negative opinions on Chinese small caps. However, a few news items I found in the Chinese media seem to argue against the doubters.

    Firstly, XIN made news after winning against the number 1 builder Wanke over a land auction in Beijing in Sept. 2012. The winning bid price was RMB 1 billion , or approximately $158 millions. XIN also had a similar land purchase worth of RMB 0.5 billion in 2011.

    Secondly, a survey released just this month put XIN at 40th place among the Chinese top 100 builders.

    I took comfort in finding third party reports on XIN's growth story over the last 10 years. Therefore, I believe XIN looks like another baby thrown out along with bathwater. If you also believe their numbers, buy at such absurdly cheap price. But I don't recommend you mortgage your house to hoard it.

    Constructive comments welcome.

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    • omeg4 Mar 8, 2013 10:16 PM Flag

      Nice. I was trying to hunt down these articles you mentioned and ran into one about another chinese developer, Country Garden Holdings. It's controlled by the richest woman in asia, Yang Huiyan, according to Forbes magazine. Why is it that everybody wants us to believe that the these developers are broke when it's so obvious that they are making more than most American corporations.

    • The dividend and share buybacks argue in favor of Xin being a viable company. Accounting is a complex subject and certainly someone would be justified in questioning a companies earnings. But Xin is cheap even for a Chinese company. Most small cap Chinese companies don't have a dividend and don't have share buybacks.

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