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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • paolorubin@ymail.com paolorubin May 10, 2013 12:12 PM Flag

    Earnings, Conference Call, and What To Expect in The Future

    $26.6 million in net income for this quarter is .34 earnings per share. Compared to last year's 1st quarter that is a 9.6% increase. In my opinion, growth did not stall (chinaman.) Can't realistically double up every year. To me these numbers are realistic.

    Other things: Dividend is still here. (infn). Record of date is May 21. They pay out May 31. It's a .05 divy. Williamsburg project is on schedule. Building permits scheduled for September. Construction scheduled for October. Completion scheduled for 2015. In China they're planning to acquire more land. They're doing all the right things.

    Callers--only two. First caller asked all the questions most of us had anyway--like what's up with the U.S. Investor Relations network, and the $200m bond with the 13% interest rate? 2nd caller asked what Gurnee had to say about people who thought they were a fraud and I got just the right vibe from Tom's answer. I like that his answer was not a rehearsed one--or an overly defensive one--it was off-the-cuff, at the moment response. This is a legit company we are dealing with.

    A lot of people missed out when this stock was $1.73 in 2011 and rose to the levels we're at now--the question is, who is going to miss out when this stock doubles and triples again? 2015, I say this stock will be triple the value it is now.

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    • some things still don't add up here - it doesn't make sense to pay a generous dividend to shareholders when at the same they need to borrow these dollars at a brutal interest rate. Also the company expects to shift to an aggressive growth mode so again payouts to shareholders aren't justified here. They were actually talking of spending the WHOLE cash balance and then some for acquiring land rights in China these year which clearly will worsen the risk profile considerably.

      The bond requires more than $27 mln in annual interest payments - wonder how they will get the dollars required for payment AND dividends withouth further borrowing. Would sell the stock here.

      • 1 Reply to hageneriksson
      • paolorubin@ymail.com paolorubin May 10, 2013 5:02 PM Flag

        It adds up to me.

        $15.68 million a year in dividends.
        $26.5 million goes to paying off the $200m bond at 13.25% interest annually a year.
        That totals to $42.18 million a year they need to pay for divy and bond interest.

        Now. Let's look at their net income. This quarter, TAKE HOME was $26.6 million. That's cash, after taxes. Conservatively, let's say they make $108 million in earnings for the year ($27mill x 4). They expect to do better in 3rd and 4th, and take home $25 mill for Q2. So let's just say $108 mill for the year. Take that, subtract the $42.18 mill and you get $65.82 million take home for the year. They CAN sustain this. I'd rather see them do that then sit on the cash like Apple quarter after quarter, and even they took out a $17 billion bond.

    • omeg4@ymail.com omeg4 May 10, 2013 12:20 PM Flag

      Haven't been able to listen to cc yet, so thanks for the recap. I agree on the 2015 timeframe. Looks to me like some institution is shorting to try and suppress the price.... probably so that they can buy in cheaper.

 
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