XIN price action suggests a major run up in next few quarters. Topping $6 is meaningful technically. XIN's Beijing project alone is worth more than XIN's market cap. I recall HIMX was trading at $1 level when it got a new CFO. Now HIMX is over $6 in less than 2 years. I see the market will give an easy ride for XIN new CFO.
We should see who he/she is next month.
BTW, we should all enjoy our dividend while waiting XIN to move further north.
Nice upside move for XIN in last few weeks. Lots of positive catalysts for XIN to keep moving higher in next few quarters:
1. New CFO to be put in place in Sept. 2013. I bet he/she will be younger than Tom. Someone with education from UPenn or other top US schools is my bet.
2. Four new projects start to sell into a great housing market in China today.
3. NYC permit gets approved. Don't forget it is very difficult to find apartments selling below $3 million today in NYC. XIN will make hundreds of millions from its NYC project in next 2 to 3 years.
4. Major land purchases in multiple cities in China.
5. Major move into commercial real estate market in China.
6. See XIN book value tops $18 by the end of 2015.
Investing into XIN is like to watch an exciting movie --- except we know the ending, that is XIN will triple in a few years if not a few quarters.
$60 million for new buy back + $8 million un-used from previous buy back program can buy more than half current XIN float. There are many positive catalysts for XIN in next 6 -18 months. Couldn't ask more for holding a stock that can triple in a few years while earning 4%+ dividend during waiting time.
I have requested XIN management many times be serious on buy back. Glad to see they now have a powerful buy back program in place. The best run US home builder NVR pushed its stock up more than 100 times via consistant open market buy back. Check 10+ year NVR chart if you are interesed in the story.
I hope they are for real this time. to me annoucing a buyback but not executing on it is worse than not having a buyback in the first place. It's just not a good way to build investor confidence.
I also believe that buyback is the best thing they can do for the owners of the company if the stock is truly undervalued.
By the way they seem to have gotten a few projects in Zhengzhou erqi new district. We should have some annoucements soon, maybe with the new earnings release.
On June 21,XIN bid to buy land in Suzhou for 1.7 billion yuan. However, it lost to Vanke which brought the land parcel for 2.08 billion yuan. This tells two things:
1. XIN now is cash rich at this time but management will not take any land unless it believes that it can generate very nice return. I think XIN is looking for 30% return in its investment.
2. Expect to see XIN to add land inventories in good prices in comming quarters. I have not seen that XIN management makes a single wrong decision in its land buying activities since its inception in 1997. You can be lucky for a year or two, you can't be lucky all the time. XIN management deserves a lot of credits here.
I bought in this week at $4.04. I've followed this stock for a couple years now. Ill list some of my main reason, hoping to see what you guys think????
1. XIN has mentioned that they are going to continue to pursue increased dividend payments. The last couple times they have increased the dividend the stock price has increased pretty significantly. I could not be surprised to see this happen again Q2 2013.
2. Almost every time XIN experiences a dip of more then 5% off of the 200 day moving average (within the last couple years) it swiftly rebounds. To me this is a sign that institutional investors are increasing their stake on the dips. That's why I bought in this week!!!
3. XIN has some really big project in the making. These project may not add much to the Q2 revenues, however I think a lot of investors have been waiting to buy in until these projects kick off. That should equivalent to a steady increase in share price within the next 6 months as those that were waiting finally buy in.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
On June 23, 2013, XIN offered to sell some commercial units in one of its projects. That event generated about 100 million yuan in revenue in a few hours. This gives good indication that XIN will beat Q2 guidance.
Starting Q3, XIN will have more projects to sell. The stock markets are difficult every where these days, especially in China. No question about that. We tend to forget "Be greedy when other are fearful" in times like this.
There are not many good news about XIN these days and stock market is weak everywhere recently. But XIN seems refuse to go down further after a 30% correction from its recent high $5.97. What looks really interesting about XIN will start in Q3 2013 and will last the whole 2014 and 2015. By the end of 2015, XIN may have a book value around $16 - $18 per ADR. For now, what I do is to collect nice dividend from XIN and wait XIN to triple down the road in a year or two. I don't know how a investor's life can get much better than this.
Today XIN is performing very well. Is this a run due to just signed "The Door of Qilu" project? If you can read Chinese, you can find news regarding "The Door of Qilu" project easily. The deal was signed in June 7, 2013 by XIN CEO. By all info I know, it is a project of over 10 billion yuan (i.e., 100 YI Yuan or $1.5 US billion). It will be nice if XIN can issue a PR about it.
Joinly with another developer, XIN will develop a $1.5 billion project named "the door of Qilu". Total space to be build will be over 800000 square meters. This will be the biggest real estate project in the capital city of Zhangdong and will be a major earning contributor for XIN in next few years. I hope we will see a PR from XIN for this project. I see XIN on target become a "100 Yi" company by the end of 2015. Another nice move by XIN management by follow what WaDa has done. I think if the market realize that XIN is to start copy WaDa, it's valuation will soar.
BTW, I like to point out that XIN's partner in "The Door of Qilu" project is a 100% government owned company. To be partner with Chinese government to do business in China, winning is actually not an odd, it is a sure thing, as far as I know.
The volumes suck. There is absolutely no serious institutional investor that has this issue on its radar screen. Although vaguely claiming solid volumes indicates institutional build up support a pump and dump tactic in a thinly traded issue is a time honored shill move. Bonus points for using a totally out of context Warren Buffet quote. People you are being played.