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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • yinvestor yinvestor Oct 29, 2013 10:57 AM Flag

    Alert on XIN!

    Potential pull back to $5.75 - $6 level(the price for the TPG investment).

    The management including the CEO sold more than 1M shares under $6 on September after TPG investment announcement made me to reconsider the valuation of the company.

    Apparently the management and the CEO think $6 was a fair value to sell both on open market and to TPG.
    The acquisition of multiple lands would decrease the cash level of the company dramatically.

    From technical point of view, it's overbought and needs a pull back.
    I am still positive on the long-term but will be more cautious on the moves of the management like
    selling more shares on open market and to institutions.

    DOW is forming multiple tops so I would be more careful to buy or hold anything at current stage.

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    • You say the CEO sold more than 1 million shares in you think this will hinder XIN's shareprice?

    • ---The management including the CEO sold more than 1M shares under $6 on September ---

      Do you think this is still a problem?

    • If you think investing is just a game like poker, you are going to lose all your money.
      If you end up rich fooling other people you end up shooting yourself in the head with all that bloody money.
      Trust me, It's not the money that makes you happy, far from it.
      What is the point for pullback? Is that baaaaaad? I'd like to see some dividends, coming soon BTW.

    • Let's try to understand what happened.

      The management expected the stock price to rise after TPG announcement.
      So they filed intention to sell their more than 1M restricted shares after TPG investment, but we don't know their selling target. From the sec filing, they haven't sold yet.

      So the TPG announcement did not trigger the stock price to rise to their selling target yet.
      So we all have to absorb this information and make our own interpretation.

      My interpretation is:
      The management showed clear intention to sell their restricted shares after TPG investment.
      They might have expected a spike of the stock price but it didn't make it to their price target which nobody knows about it except themselves.

      Here is just my guess:
      Their price target might be $8 but it didn't make it there recently.
      If TPG pays $5.5 - $6, how much would you like to pay for their shares?

      • 1 Reply to yinvestor
      • Management did NOT show their clear intention to sell their restricted shares after TPG investment.....they have filed Form 144 for a number of years without selling anything!

        Here is my guess:
        Each management person has their own target. The CEO might sell at $30/share....because he gets $6 million/year in dividends.
        Gurnee might sell some at $15/share.....because he is a poor CPA and has to beg the CEO to use the corporate jet to fly to Greece for R&R! The human relations director might sell at $8/share because she can't use the jet when the men are partying .....she and only makes 10% of what Gurnee makes!

        If TPG pays $5.5 - $6, I will buy 500 shares at $6.50/share and sell 1000 at $7.50/share.

        Keep on Babbling!!!!

    • It was actually that insider selling post triggered this pull back from $7.35.
      Now the damage has been caused and the chance this is going back to 30($6.5) or 50 days average($6.25) or even 100 days average($5.50) is there and I am not predicting anything.

    • There are not many nice guys here in this board except Don and a few others.

    • The other statements of mine remain unchanged.
      I am not giving guidance to anyone so don't follow me or argue with me.
      It's a waste of time for me.

      My posts is just to express my opinion and if you thinks it makes sense,
      you could take the information, if not, just go away.
      There is no point arguing with each other here.

      If you are long, that's fine for me.
      If you are short, fine for me too.

    • As all of you can see that I am not the guys posting those insider selling but somebody else did it.
      So now the statements is:

      The management filed their intent to sell their more than 1M restricted shares on September but they haven't done so yet. What does that mean to investors? You would need to have your own interpretation.
      I don't know what their intention is and when they will start selling but at least they have the intention to sell after they announced the TPG investment between $5.5 - $6.

      I bought at $6 and sold above $7 and now I am waiting for another entry point the lower the best to reduce the risk.

      I don't know what's wrong with this board, people here are always angry and hate each other.
      Did you guys all make money on this stock? Why are you still angry? I don't get it.

      When I told people I was long and hoping this stock could go to $15, people hated me and argue with me all the time. Now I give up and told you that this stock is overbought and I am expecting a pull back, the same people hated me again and comes out argue with me again. What's wrong with these people?

    • I wish there were a technique to label you as a liar

    • What happened to you? I thought that you were quite bullish on XIN. What made you change your opinion on XIN?

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