they have a lot of new projects starting as early as q4 2013, will not be surprised if they achieve revenues of $1.2 bn in 2014 with net profit around $ 180m / with lets say a 15% pay out this will give 30 cents of div or 7.5 cents per quarter/ FY 2015 looks already very promising / remember they bought the NY land at a very cheap price and very likely it will be a commercial success/ Overall looking for revenues in 2015 at around $ 1.6 bn with net at $ 230m/ I believe General & administrative which spiked above 6% of revenues in Q3 2013 and probably will start to stabilize or go down in % in 2014 & 2015. Cash generation wiil accelerate which secures a very strong balance sheet in coming years./ I hope they will do some effort regarding IR and analyst coverage !! Regarding bk per value looking for 12.5 £ per ADR ( diluted with TPG convertibles) end of 2014 and 14.6 $ end of 2015 / regards to all !
Losing confidence in xinyuan they said in q1 that earnings would be flat for q1 and q2 and that earnings would take off/go straight up in q 3 and q4 they are still running the we don't have any sellable inventory story in q 3 when will they have sellable inventory? when the Chinese government puts more restrictions on the housing market?
you have to take into accounts 2 things: 1/ in Q2 a $ 9m one off income tax benefit which boosted q2 earnings 2/ in Q3 they hire a lot of managers which had a negative impact on G&A expenses
This additionnal costs will be cover as from 2014 with a strong increase in revenues ( see my forecasts above / If you look each q of 2013 its heading north in term of revenues / profit will also follow in 2014 but in order to face new projects of 2014& 2015 they increase by 40% managers headcount/ STRONG BUY !