"There is a definite problem happening to XIN" What say your crystal ball or please share some of your psychic abilities. I'm sure i'm not the only one who'd like to know what's happening. I don't see a "2018" call date for 13.25% bond issue being a problem today/now. When I look back at the stock buybacks I see that as being done fairly quick or in a reasonable time frame; except for this last announcement. Usually when XIN announces a new buyback program it is at the same time they complete payment on the current one. This did not happen on 7/16/13 PR of $60ml buyback announcement as $10.6ml remains of the $20ml previous one. Though I don't love it i'm ok with it because I think this TPG deal changed XIN's rhythm with buybacks. At least you can look back with how these took place and now it's different with TPG in the picture. Also if I recall correctly XIN buybacks are NOT done around the time they part with dividend money. So just maybe we won't see a buyback until next year. Then again things seem to be working in a TGP time frame or something.
My concern is meeting the numbers for the 4th quartely and annual report showdown. Hopefully some of you can help me figure where i'm wrong. Plus I do have to study this more. What I see is 10 existing projects all in various stages of completion to contribute to the next report. Yes there are 4 or more other projects slated completion dates next year or not with dates known yet. 4 of these average 95.8% completion. So these will not add much cash to the pot. The Jinan property needs to show us sold #s of hopfully 20 + % from the last stat. Both the Suzhou & Zhengzhou "Xin City" properties can" possibly" show us 75+% & 80+% respectfully. That is just about 100% sold so keep in mind that likely "won't be" the case. Sure like to see within 10% of those numbers. Then we have Beijing, Xuzhou, and Kushan of which all 3 are "suppose to" bring in some cash. Remember the guidance has been bumped up at least twice.
I'll try to finish. All week while writing posts the crazy thing gives out not letting the typing continue. Anyhow there are basically 5 parcels to bring in the brunt to meet the guidance. It is hard for me to calculate because given the way this is listed in the Nov 8th report I can not figure how many units there are per parcel. So given what little I know right now I do not see these properties meeting or as we want beating guidance. More needs to be done on this to come up with a substantial conclusion.
Wow indeed. Is getaguide blowing smoke a reason to be concerned? He says there is a "definite" problem but he has not defined it. The only speculation that I have seen on this board regarding the recent selloff that has made any sense is that there is some profit taking going on, and some shares were dumped that people bought at 1.9 all the way up to 5.3. How is that a "problem"? And if there is a public perception problem, isn't that already cooked into the price? These are definite buy levels.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Regarding XINs cash in the balance sheet. 2013-09-30 they had 562 MUSD in cash or cashlike, about 28% of total balance sheet. After that they bought land so the cash position should have gone down quite a lot since then. I checked with 000006 and their balance sheet, they had 1831 MRmb, about 300 MUSD in cash, around 20% if the balance sheet. Vanke has 51 billion Rmb ib cash, although a much bigger balance sheet so I think a large portion of cash is needed if you want to take advantage of the opportunities and you have to react fast in China or you are out. Xin had a little higher cash positon last quarter than its competitors but i expect it to be much lower after the recent land purchases.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
CFO quitting alone may not be an issue. However, combined with the expensive bond offering, TPG investment and the slow stock buybacks, there is highly likely a problem. Why the hack does XIN need that much cash when its balance sheet shows it already has a ton?
You are too short-term focused to see the heavy expansion that's going to happen. You can't see $30 or more share price in the not-too-distant future.
I still have doubts about the TPG investment. The management has yet to show what's so "strategic" about it beside bringing in some money.