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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • savvyvalue savvyvalue Dec 8, 2013 12:55 AM Flag

    Done with XIN due to China air quality

    In oct. 2011 and have XIN as my largest position until recently. Sold 95%+ my XIN positions in nov. 2013. XIN CEO wants make XIN a 10 billion yuan in revenue in near future. Most likely, he will be successful. But air quality makes me feel that all major cities in China is not livable any more, including all cities where XIN does business. This is not XIN' fault. But I have to sell. Will not buy any Chinese home builders for long time to come, I guess at least 5 years.

    For the XIN shares that I still own, I will let them stay in my portfolio but they are count for less than 0.5% of my portfolio.

    I also sold all other Chinese stocks except one ( a natural soft drink company) in nov. 2013 while I sell XIN.

    XIN is still one of best performing stock in NYSE in 2013.

    Hope you all do well in 2014.

    I will focus US equity in 2014. Like stocks in financial and technology.

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    • Shelly,

      I just came back from China. You need go there to understand what I mean "poor air quality". I hold XIN for more than two years since I brought at $1.8 level because I have no debut on if XIN is a real business. Yes, my plan was to hold to $16 - 18 for a 1000% gain. But I am worry pollution in China now may post risk on all home developers there and most natural resource companies, such as rio and vale, around world. As for my investment in born, CJJD, CHLN, and oink, they all give me more than 100% gain except oink which I sold with small profit. Oink price, on the other hand, has doubled since I sold.

      I never said that I am a good investor. I said short term traders all lose money on a long term base. I believed that when I said that back then and I believe that now.

      You work really hard here for more than two years to bash XIN. But at the end, you said you brought into XIN at $6.5 level. Did you remember I have said I would consider selling my XIN position when Shelly becomes bullish?

      Finally, I have detached from XIN. I wish XIN do well in years to come. But XIN price movement will have no impact on me financially and mentally.

      • 1 Reply to savvyvalue
      • ' Did you remember I have said I would consider selling my XIN position when Shelly becomes bullish?'
        So, first you get out because of the air quality, which you have always known about, now it's because you say I was bullish.
        People have to live somewhere.
        I guess you didn't see this post of mine.


        Hear Ye, Hear Ye

        by shelly_showman • Oct 30, 2013 12:57 PM Flag

        I have now become a bagholder as of 4 min. ago. So you have my buy in real time.
        Do not think that I have become 'a believer', I haven't, it's only for the trade with earnings coming up. So stock
        you can do me the favor of ceasing your drop anytime.
        And no, my rhetoric will not change.

        Unfortunate that the news we did hear was on the CFO.

    • LMAO Savvy
      Your post a month ago: 'Anyone who can hold XIN to $15 will not only make good money in XIN but also will be changed to a good investor forever.'
      Does this mean you are now a bad investor? Just because you pumped stocks like born, oink, chln, and Xin
      we won't hold it against you, no one listened anyway. I think you just became one of those 'basher longs', wetf
      that is..........but a Chinese guy's sudden discovery of 'air quality problems in china'?, what an epic revelation.
      May I sit at your feet oh great one?

    • Good luck with focusing on US equities in 2014 after their terrific year in 2013. I'm staying with China because of its GDP growth rate, the continued movement of many millions of citizens from poverty to low income, and continued urbanization. They surely do have pollution problems, but they also have the financial means to move in the right direction. US market seems to me dependent of the massive Fed. bond buying program. Don't see how that can continue without inflation. But then, I also said that 3 years ago. Maybe we will both be right.

    • China has no choice...they must clean up the environment. As urbanization continues.....more and more resources will be allocated to a clean environment. Good long term investments will take a clean environment into account.

      " China’s stocks fell as coal companies slumped after Shanghai reported record-high levels of pollution, .....Environmental-protection stocks rose.
      China Shenhua Energy Co., the biggest coal producer, and a a gauge of energy shares dropped the most in two weeks as Masterlink Securities Corp. said worsening pollution may spur a shift away from fossil fuels. ......Fujian Longking Co., which makes pollution control equipment, advanced 0.8 percent."

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