It was trading at these levels in May. Between then and now, we experienced a sharp run-up fueled mostly by momentum after some analysts were calling it the most undervalued stock in all the market. Someone on the board here, whose post turned out to be ingenius, said we are due for a healthy 20% pullback next, which we got rather quickly. And then there was the non-news event of a departing CFO, who had insufficient experience in that field and had only been on the job a few months, fueled a lot of uncertainty as the stock lost 30 cents in about 30 seconds, touching off a loss of another 20% more which spanned over three weeks as buying slowed. The stock has been bouncing between 4.95 and 5.45 in the time since, and with the dividend going over 4% of share price, a lot of buying has been going on again. On the days in which the buyers are all getting in, the stock goes up a couple points, and then some quick profit taking cools it temporarily and the cycle has repeated no less than 5 times since CFO resignation. My target for this stock is 8.5 which is on the conservative side. I won't consider selling until I get above 8 at least. In the meantime, I like the dividend and the odds of doubling my money within the year are pretty good as the real estate market is going to peak in 2015, and indications of sales in 2014 are going to point to better prospects ahead.
Also we had year end selling * XIN started '13 around 3.50 with a high breaking 7.40 in Oct. * So it was a good year all things being relative to what price one got in at * For this year so far CNBC lists a 1% decline in ownership from what they call major shareholders * Maybe it's changing stocks out of the portfolio to start the year * Then we have the issue of uncertainty with China's economy where recently the news has positive threads * If you've read up you know of the TGP investment this past late summer a ++ * You know the earnings report is due late Feb * Two or three posters probably have a better handle on the sales numbers since the Nov report * Seasonality will most likely play into it plus the year to year comp could make the numbers seems worse than the estimates since last year was termed as a blow out * For me whatever this report is i'm in for a longer term and as you made reference to "projects on hand" is another reason i'm sticking around. * There "seems" to be no major issues fundamentally, though other investors will have their wish lists, i'd like to have seen the hiring of a CFO as done and over with by Dec 31st but nothing happened; yes Zang? filled in again * As investing goes what we base our decisions on is 25% facts / 25% we think their facts and 50% is luck __ something like that __ my point is most of what we do is believing we'll come up with a good roll on the dice * i'm going to sound contradictory here because even though the stats, the dividend, the persona all can be perceived to make for a safer than "average" stock; which has been the case for me being in and out of this one for 3 years, but right now this block of time i feel the most uneasy of all this time * i don't trade on my feelings * but it's that unknowing feeling, like you were saying "why is it trading at 5" * There just seems to be something different going on this time from what i've experienced before with XIN so nothing will surprise me