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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

  • upsman25out upsman25out May 25, 2013 11:38 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha Board

    Alright guys we need to defend our company on the seeking alpha message board. The author wrote an article on why FedEx has UPS beat. Some positive comments would be much appreciated. Thanks

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    • One would think that a couple things should jump out. First, FDX is suffering more from the downgrading of service levels for parcels as their network is more time sensitive based. Secondly, they just signed a much less lucrative USPS air lift deal that will impact profitability. Thirdly, UPS net margins are about double those of FDX. Fourthly, UPS investors appreciate the dividend being 4X that of FDX. Number five, and perhaps most important, is the fact that current analyst projections show FDX expected to increase EPS for its FY ending next May by $1.40. This is curious since FDX has missed expectations by a combined $.17 in the last 2 quarters. This despite the initial impact of the $1.7B cost saving master plan. By comparison, UPS is projected to increase EPS next year by a much more reasonable $.71.

      So, I suspect FDX is in for a huge miss next year unless expectations come down dramatically. If they do, forward P/E goes up as well and it will look like UPS's. Personally, I'd like to think that at some point, a respected journalist/congressman/senator/economist/talking head will bring this FDX use of the IC model up as a subsidy and indirect cost to the taxpayer generated by a high profile and supposedly respected firm and its iconic leader. When that happens, the FDX smoke and mirrors profit play will be exposed.

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