there are so many holes in the FDX analyst expectations it's scary. First off, as we know they report their Q3 (December, January and February) on March 19th- just 3 weeks away. Just like UPS reported during our earnings call, FDX will have to discuss the disappointing peak season. They had problems in Memphis and Texas hubs just like we did. They had issues in urban/rural centers all over the country just like we did. The surprising thing in my mind is analysts not reacting to FDX's last Q3 report when projecting this years EPS prognostication. Last year they missed Q3 by a whopping $.13 while reporting $1.23. This year, despite the horrific weather and package overload, analysts are looking for $1.55. That # has only come down by $.02 in the last 90 days. So what I'm again saying is look for a profit warning in the near future just as UPS alerted the analyst community in advance.
FDX needs to warn shortly. There will be an impact but not as big as an impact UPS will have this quarter. FDX pays their franchisees a specific dollar amount per package to deliver the packages. So when a storm hits, fdx will eat most of the expenses but the delivery drivers eat the package delivery expense including overtime..
With UPS, they eat all the expenses from pickup to delivery and all overtime.
FDX will take a hit and will probably warn this week but UPS will be hit harder. The weather was horrible this year..