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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

  • shiftyinvestor shiftyinvestor Mar 4, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    UPS Presentation info - Raymond James Conference - Projected 2014 / 2015 Share Prices

    UPS - 2014 Outlook* Announced Guidance of $5.05-$5.30, an increase of 11-16%

    EPS FY14: $5.05-$5.30, an increase of 11-16% over 2013 adjusted results

    Domestic
    • ADV grow 3-4%, above 2014 GDP (+2.7%)
    • Revenue slightly faster pace than ADV%, with base rates up 2-3% masked by product mix
    • Pension expense down $180M with majority in U.S., offset by higher healthcare costs
    • Margin around 14%
    • Additional CAPEX of $500M and op. expense of $100M for projects to address Peak 2013 issues

    International
    • ADV growth 4-6%
    • Revenue slightly slower pace than volume, non-premium products to outpace premium
    • Profit growth 12-14%

    SC&F
    • Revenue mid-single digit growth
    • Margin around 8%
    • Profit growth low teens

    The following are my assumptions, expectations for UPS's share price for 2014 and 2015:

    Assume FY2014 @ High End of UPS EPS Guidance of $5.30

    Assume market allows a 20 P/E ratio = 2014 Share Price of $106 ($5.30 EPS x 20 P/E ratio)

    Assume FY2015 mid-range of EPS growth of 11 to 16% = 13.5%

    2014 EPS of $5.30 x 13.5% growth = $6.02 possible 2015 EPS

    $6.02 x the same 20 P/E ratio = $120.40 target share price in 2015

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UPS
96.94+0.03(+0.03%)Jul 1 4:02 PMEDT