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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

  • dudesbag dudesbag Mar 25, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    FDX and UPS P/E estimates

    This is becoming rather curious. After FDX reported their big $.24 Q3 (Dec, Jan, Feb) miss, their Trailing 12 month P/E ratio moved up to 25.13. This is what happens when expectations are missed. By comparison, UPS Trailing 12 month P/E is 21.13 indicative of a better valuation. But here's the major point to be made. The UPS forward P/E for 2015 is 16.43. That's based upon an expectation of increasing earnings per share from $5.22 this year to $5.93 next year. That $.71 is a very reachable goal. In order to meet their forward P/E projection of 15.04, FDX would have to see their EPS move from $6.67 to $8.82 which is a $2.15 move vs. UPS's $.71. So, in effect, FDX would have to more than triple the EPS increase that UPS is projecting to meet their forward P/E projection. Considering that UPS has much better operating and profit margins than FDX (not too far from double), such an outcome is hard to imagine. But then again, analysts expected them to hit the EPS # this last quarter and look what happened! If I was a betting man, I'd have my $$ on the UPS side of the table.

    Sentiment: Buy

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