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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

  • dudesbag dudesbag May 24, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    Now that we're sitting at $102.73...

    We're just a few bucks off our all-time high. The transports have been motoring up the charts even in a weak and poorly recovering economy. FDX and UPS have both been off their stride in recent quarters largely due to highly unusual weather. Finally, that issue seems to be in the rear view mirror and thankfully weather prognosticators are calling for a modest hurricane season. I believe the last hump is for analysts to lower the FDX earnings target to a more reasonable # rather than a 32% increase in EPS for next FY ending May, 2015. In late June we'll hear their Q4 final quarter and what they expect going forward. If they suggest, as Kurt Keuhn did during his recent interview, that even with domestic growth a bit muted the small package companies are doing well, we'll see new highs. Realistically, what's not to like for us? Contract settled for 5 years, on-line shipping going great guns, international expansion going well, logistics warehousing still growing, facilities being expanded to improve both volume and adaptive capacities, early morning am zip codes expanded for this high margin service, bricks and mortars working with UPS to compete vs. strictly on-line competitors, eventual China expansion as restrictions abate, 4% overall volume growth in Q1 despite lackluster economy and fuel prices projected to come back down leaving us a tailwind at some future point. Sure seems like $110 is on the cards absent an economic collapse. Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • one month later we are a buck down

      Sentiment: Buy

    • you seem to feel that the only reason UPS missed their numbers was highly unusual weather.....they blamed weather and customers previous quarter...the quarter before that they flat out missed..no excuses..by a mile....the analysts have lowered this quarter to $1.23.....it was $1.35 before their last miss........what a joke......and you believe they deserve a $1.10 price tag.......i'm just kind of tired of the lowered guidance,analysts lowered revisions just so we can hit target,weather issues, amazon hurt us, gas went up....the company seems full of excuses...in the old days we sucked it up and did better......no excuses.....boy how times have changed......fix those excuses and the stock will take care of itself......not stock buybacks....jmo

      • 3 Replies to drmagoo54
      • What are you smokin'? The only quarter they missed was the last quarter reported and that included the bad weather and shipping problems.Here's UPS's numbers.

        Earnings History Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14
        EPS Est 1.13 1.15 1.25 1.08
        EPS Actual 1.13 1.16 1.25 0.98
        Difference 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.10
        Surprise % 0.00% 0.90% 0.00% -9.30% Less

      • You seem to be confusing UPS"s numbers with FDX's. Here's FDX's numbers.

        Earnings History May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14
        EPS Est 1.96 1.50 1.64 1.45
        EPS Actual 2.13 1.53 1.57 1.23
        Difference 0.17 0.03 -0.07 -0.22
        Surprise % 8.70% 2.00% -4.30% -15.20%

      • Dr. Magoo- you're moniker is perfect because your clearly blind to the momentum and direction of future margins either by FDX volume default to us next year or if we decide to match their move. Read the Europe article just posted by the Motley Fool guys and see what you think. I guess the entire market and analyst group is wrong and you're right. Congrats on that distinction.

    • Hey folks- consider this. As we all know, FDX always exceeds UPS in the EPS category. This makes perfect sense since there are only 295M FDX shares outstanding while UPS has more than 3X as many at 915M. What does NOT make any sense at all is the current analyst projection for FDX for their next fiscal year which starts June 1. Last year, FDX exceeded our EPS by $1.66/share. This year they are projected to only beat us by $1.59- a slight decline in the margin. But, it gets ridiculous next year when analysts currently peg the margin between UPS and FDX EPS at $2.95!! UPS expects a nice increase in EPS from $5.08 this year to $5.88 next year. That is a healthy yet achievable goal. Meanwhile, FDX is expected to go from $6.67 to $8.83!! I suspect that might be part of the reason for the huge change in billing from weight to a weight/dimension combination. I really hope we decide to wait a year to see the ramification of their move. We'll benefit anyway thru increased volume albeit perhaps bulkier.
      I

 
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