I looked at the historical chart for the spike and following crash in 1980 when silver set the record high(intra-day@ $50)). I found the historical chart, and an article about it at:
I wasn't trading stocks then. Could someone please share what caused the bottom to fall out, and why it won't do this again? I understand the weak dollar and the need for silver in so many industries. I have very carefully read all of this week's posts on this board. Many are very intelligent posts from some great minds here. I have the greatest respect for your input, and your ability to read and interpret stock charts. I even learned a little about Finonacci, but have had no training in chart analyzation.
I was brave enough to hold 8000 shares of EXK over the weekend, rather than sell at Friday's close. As fate would have it, the spot price escalated and I can't wait to see pre-market prices tomorrow morning. I am not sure what to do, because the phrase "pigs get slaughtered" keeps running through my mind. I would welcome any information that you gentlemen could offer in regards to the historical chart of 1980, what is going on now, --if history can repeat itself at THIS all time high.
The number $14.35 (or thereabouts) for EXK keeps coming up on this board. Then, some have speculated that this stock could reach $34 by August. I don't want to get caught in what happened on a fateful Monday in January of 1980. Can anyone here comment on this historical event, and what brought on the spike then the crash? Did mining stocks plummet then, as well? Some of you probably weren't even born then!
I'm nervous, because tomorrow morning is Monday....and spot silver is nearing the $50 all-time record. It can't hold long. In stock trading it is always the question as to when to bail. I won't sleep well tonight.
I was trading silver in 1979 and 1980. The exchanges changed the rules in order to force liquidation of contracts. Most exchange members were short. It was the perfect storm for a bull market with rampant inflation of 18%+ The trigger for the violent sell off was twofold. The exchanges called for "liquidation only" trading and restricted the position limits. Also, Volker raised the discount rate by a whopping 2% to mid teens. The whole thing was a major conspiracy to stop Bunker Hunt and the Arabs from forcing delivery of silver. Today, everything is different, no inflation, low interest rates, no deliverable silver, worthless dollar, etc, etc. This bull cannot be stopped by the exchange. Silver is going much higher.
Over time, I anticipate that the recent surge... (surge) in commodity prices will also effect the prices of a broader range of consumer goods and services that use these commodities as inputs"
Read her speech today.. She is Federal Reserve Vice Chair
How can you say..NO INFLATION?
I agree there is no wage inflation..
But the things each family needs to live here in America..are going higher..
Life in America is becoming expensive for all..
Your buying buying $USD is falling lower.. too.
Corn up $100 in less than 12 months.
In two major Metal stock AZK and BVN
These two stocks have WEDGE pattern..
50% to which way they breakout.
I scanned 1,000 stocks pattern and Metals are going to break either higher soon or lower.
$USD is trending lower.
Those who catch the next low point will reap a good return..
6 Month accumulation phase pur etext book.
New York Inst of finance text book.. now we have prolong Mark up phase.. to around August 2011
Daily charts Price data is clear.. they are buying and marking shares higher on each wave cycle.
Major Reversal Patterns such as the one we currently developing is a BUY THE DIP and wait..
Those who Buy the DIPS will reap the next mark-up phase.
May 9 2011 Earnings come out.
I spoke with SEC employee about when was the best time to watch for the accumalation process by the company CFO buying back shares..
This SEC employee told me that watch the stock action roughly 21 trading days before they released their earnings report.
May 9 , 2011 EXK releases it earnings results.
Odd thing their current $100 million cash I know $10 Million going to exploration.. they show as of today $1.08 per share in cash.. times 81.7 million shares
$81.7 times $1.08 = $88,236,000 Cash on hand
$81.7 + $10 million = $91,7000,000
$100,000,000 they reported a few days ago is down to $91,700,000 now
Where is the $8,300,000 at?
Are they investing in their shares before they report on May 9, 2011?
I think they are.. from the large block buys today and News item
I bet the Legal department told them to issue News If they start buying shares back.. Or lawsuits will follow in time.
I wish to thank everyone who answered my questions in such an informed, intelligent and inforrmative way. I am impressed at the caliber of your replies. This board is highly unusual in the educational level. The information posted answered my questions.
By the way... I didn't sleep well last night, and got stopped out today. I'm going to do what "Ocean" said. I'm not jumping back in, until the direction is established. Could this have been a knee jerk reaction to the lower spot price today? This stock is definitely going higher, but we need to see how much it may drop, before the price heads back up. This is a wonderful board, folks. Glad to be among friends.
In 1980 silver was not in a shortage. There was no China on the block buying. No Russia buying, No india buy large either. There was not tens of trillions in unfunded liabiltities. There was the photo industry but not all the new technologies that use huge amounts of silver. Look, we are going to see silver Break $200/oz and maybe even $1000. This bull market is nothing compared to 1980.
The Hunt Brothers were buying every ounce of silver available.
The story that most people don't know is that Bunker Hunt was buying silver so that The Republic of Texas could be re-instituted and use silver as a currency rather than FRN's.
Just as JFK was murdered for attempting to bring back gold backed currency, the PTB was extremely unhappy with the Hunts.
What happened is the SEC held a meeting and established position limits of 1500 contracts.
The Hunts were forced to dump 10's of thousands of contracts, which of course crashed the market.
Today the conditions are the exact opposite.
The Hunts were attempting to re-establish a rational system of government with a monetary system which would allow a lowly citizen to retain the fruits of his labor, which of course the PTB were and are absolutely opposed to.
Today JP Morgue, Goldman sux, et al, are working at the behest of the PTB to suppress the price of silver so that the fiat game may be extended briefly.
This time there will be no imposition of position limits on the Morgue and their ilk.
Margins will eventually be extended to 100%
This time silver will rocket up 100's of percent, for the opposite reasons it rocketed down in 1980.
IT WILL over extend, but then plateau at a price which reflects reality, many times above today's price.
This IS the correction. Tonight's action is part of the correction.
Don't trade on thin margin, it will get violent as we proceed.
Bunker Hunt was buying silver so that The Republic of Texas could be re-instituted and use silver as a currency rather than FRN's."
Utah and several other states are trying to enact silver and gold for their currency.
It's hard assets V.S. U.S.D.
In the early 80's inflation was a big concern.
YOU ARE 100% CORRECT. And in the 80's our debt was under 2T, today its 14T
There was no Sovreign debt crisis.
No 600T hidden exposure to the off radar derivatives and swaps market.
No mounting off radar unfunded debt of a collapsing social security system.
No "protect your wealth from the potential permanent collapse of dollar" trade!
No banks who sold 100X more silver to folks then they had silver to deliver!
Technicians who ignore the fundamentals will simply miss most of the run, and ultimately end up back in the very fiat currency that could drop by 75% over any given weekend. When the dollar does a full collapse, we will plateau.
As you point out, THIS IS THE CORRECTION, and this is a special circumstance.