The Dow Jones FXCM dollar rallied a bit at the end of the NY session and EXK rose a few cents within the same timeframe. Investors of metals were pleased to see that that the Bernanke Fed were holding interest rates in place and would continue with monthly bond buying. The FED stated that labor markets will remain a key focus as more job development is needed before a revision in monetary stimulus.
The NFP - nonfarm payrolls will probably show mild positive employment numbers or dynamics. Improved sectors within housing would indicate an improving economy or at least those (investors and consumers) willing to bet on it. At times, certain sectors with heavy weight to consumer spending comes with a price known as inflation. Inflation depends on macroeconomics known as the price/wage spiral. To offset or balance this would mean that taxable salaries rise faster than CPI. The FED is forecasting inflation to stay tamed, rising only to just over 2% by 2015. Tomorrow comes the German PMI reports.
Silver as a risk asset will always have merit relating to US debt economics and global financial failures, but now is the time to focus on silver within a growth economic model as well - still with the implies of supply/demand implications. It will take longer for silver to rise again based on positive economics, but then again - that may be mostly for the time being. The rich manipulation groups control and both the FED and big business wants low silver prices, but the day is still coming, one way or the other that supply will not meet demand and price manipulation will get it's back broken. EXK is undervalued and there's buyout talk surfacing again.
Personally, I believe that once all these people that lost their jobs due to sequestration start filing for unemployment, we will see a fairly sizable rise in new claims. This will send the dollar down, and silver/gold up. Along with solidify the Fed's decision to keep the printing presses hot.
If you are not working in the DoD sector right now, you might not realize just how many people were affected by sequestration. More than half my company got pink slips out here in Iraq. That is a drop in the bucket compared to some of the bigger contracts. I would imagine, most of these people will go home and file for unemployment.
I can't agree that NFP numbers will continue to see any improvements soon. And that is due to several earnings releases and news releases out today.
Restaurants suffering: "February marks the first three-months of consecutive declines in restaurant sales in almost three years as Bloomberg reports consumers caught in "an emotional moment" spooked by higher payroll taxes, surging healthcare premia, and spiking energy costs. "February was pretty ugly" for many chains after January delivered an initial blow."
High tech suffering: Oracle earnings grossly disappoint
Construction industry and durable goods suffering: "It is the 'crash' in Caterpillar's sales that should be more worrisome. Just as the economies of the world are supposed to be getting ready to re-surge and expectations are set for a second half renaissance, it seems that in reality, corporations that build stuff, mine stuff, and move stuff are not buying in anticipation. As the following chart suggests, perhaps CAT is yet another canary in the global economic decline coalmine?" (From Zero Hedge)
Transportation takes a major hit: FedEx today reports extremely disappointing earnings. Things aren't moving around the globe like one would expect in a recovering economy.
Perhaps a few more government jobs will disappear due to "Sequester".
When I try to compile numbers (I did nothing in respect to this round) I include ADP Research in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics as a soft back drop when compiling data. The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data.
As I stated last month, I didn't trust government numbers. My numbers given were a bit less last time in total as part of plus and minuses.
Jobs - employment within political and policy sensitive sectors like hospitals are probably down. One must consider the new health bill - insurance costs among lower wage employers like retail. The total nonfarm payroll accounts for only (approximately) 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. Seasonal numbers is an important part of dynamics. I think that government is never accurate, as they are pumped and will probably say that they are mildly positive. They will at least try to sell positive dynamics going into May-June.
I haven't checked ADP figures on Monday, when they were probably compiled, nor did I complete analytics this time around. We will see what the government numbers are soon enough.