Hard to see any catalyst to change the downward momemtum. World crisis events no longer impact silver and gold. Can't have a much better QE environment than that occurring the last couple of years and in any event EXK is actually negatively correlated to increased QE in those years. My bet was that there would be commodity inflation by now, but actually there is no sign of such. And the momemtum players, as well as those simply respecting the trend, are not going to be buying soon. Even the conspiracy theorists ought to be thinking, "why fight it, let's go with it and make some easy money with the manipulators on the short side". And certainly the overall market is due for a pullback. Obviously, we could rally to $6.35 or so and keep the downtrend in effect but how does it get beyond that over the next three or four months? GLTA longs.
Even the volume has moved against us. Heavier on down days then up, the few we had.
As you point out, even when events are or should be extremely bullish they just turn the screws even tighter.
I would think one of their targets would be to facilitate a capitulation on the part of the physical hoarders. After a while, how long can you hold your double digit silver when the going prices for physical is cut to half of what you paid? It probably doesn't help our cause that the supplies are as tight as they are. Requiring extreme manipulation to free supply.
I just thought of a possible hidden agenda: that being war. You need a lot of silver to make bombs.
They may have extreme price deterioration as a target so that they can make war. Wouldn't that be something.
Great post, Scraven. I think you've summed up the feelings of a lot of depressed "longs". Who knows if silver and EXK have more room to sink lower. Nevertheless, many successful investors realize you should not run with the herd. Unless there is something fundamentally wrong with a particular asset class, the time to be buying and not selling is when everyone else has lost interest and the asset class has become so unloved that it has fallen below such measures as the 200 DMA.
According to some bloggers, many miners cannot profitably mine silver below $27/0z. Those miners will soon stop mining silver, slow down their mining of silver, or possibly hoard their mined silver until prices move upwards. Less supply with increasing "physical" demand will eventually force prices upward. And is the demand for physical silver actually waning when we hear the U.S. Mint is on pace to significantly break their sales record of silver eagles set in 2011?
So does one exit their silver investments at this time? When even the "stronger hands" in silver now become discouraged and sell, it seems to me that we must be close to a bottom and a turnaround is imminent. But whether we must endure a "capitulation" before the turnaround....only the Shadow knows for sure. I, for one, hold silver for insurance against a currency collapse more than for investment purposes. So I hang onto my core positions, suffer bouts of depression when looking at spot silver prices, and patiently wait for what I believe to be an inevitable event.....horrendous inflation via a currency crisis.