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Endeavour Silver Corp. Message Board

  • quailrunrd quailrunrd Mar 26, 2014 11:03 PM Flag

    Is EXK's price decline overdone?

    SLV (representative of physical silver price) has declined 3% over the last 5 trading days. EXK, on the other hand, has declined 14%. The miners are always more volatile than the metals they mine. But in my opinion, this EXK decline is way overdone.

    Hopefully, silver prices have bottomed. And as I mentioned in an earlier post....time is on our side. But here's my confession: I never thought silver would again fall below $20/oz. Yeah...what do I know anyhow!

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    • Like Yogi Berra used to say....."It's not over.....'till it's over!"

    • …way over done…~ its dropped over a dollar in a week….I sold at 5.60 bought back in at 4.23 so to me this is a give. Everyone knows where pms are headed, so why quibble about a few cents.

    • Quail, as much as I hate seeing silver fall below $20/oz again, and as hard as it's been to watch EXK fall with silver, there is a "silver" lining. You just gotta dig for it. If you look back at December of last year when silver was BARELY over $19/oz, EXK's share price was almost 20% lower. Also, if you look back even further at July of last year, silver was just over $19/oz, EXK's share price was almost 40% lower than it is now. It may be leveling out now. I just hope that silver is slowing it's decline and getting ready for it's reversal. But the fact that we are above $4/sh while silver is under $20/oz is very promising imo. Just imagine EXK's share price if/when silver gets back to the $25-$30/oz range! My rough estimates are....

      Silver $25/oz = EXK $6+/sh
      Silver $30/oz = EXK $9+/sh

      • 2 Replies to beastinem
      • Beast- We all know that the company has no control over the price of silver and gold. In the past, from time to time they have withheld the sale of production for short periods of time in an effort to get the best price. Management is and has always been focused on reducing costs whenever possible',

        Much has changed since $30 and $40 plus silver. Not only are we producing significantly more silver and gold but the cost of the additional mill capacity at Buenavista and Bolanitos are behind us In the past ounces produced at El Cubo did nothing for the bottom line because the production costs exceeded $30 an ounce. That's no longer true.. More importantly, the complete do over of the El Cubo mill is completed, on time and under budget. Capex for 2014 will be minimal, largely mine exploration. In my OPINION, capex will be expanded a bit should the price of silver rise above $25 plus.

        One other point for those that don't have the time to follow the company as closely. Much ado has been made regarding the additional taxes imposed on the miners by the government. While it is an additional cost it is manageable. Management stated that the tax if applied to 2013, would have cost the company an additional $3.5 million, $3 million after adjustments. Considering that the company produced 11.3 SEO for 2013, the additional cost reduced profit by about thirty cents an ounce. Not a good thing but certainly not a back breaker. It is true though that management engaged in a bit of hyperbole when the tax was announced in an effort to dissuade the government from implementing the tax. This gave the impression mining in Mexico wouldn't be profitable.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • beast- The company reported AISC of $12 and small change for Q's 3 & 4. With that in mind at $25 silver, combined with 11.3 million SEO production, the company would generate in excess of $100 million . At a modest pe of 10, $6 a share would be viewed in the rear view mirror. At $30 silver several things will occur. First, market sentiment would have changed and all of the miners will be treated a little kinder by Mr Market. Second, the company will generate at least $50 million more cash than $25 silver. Third, production will be ramped up at El Cubo to 1500-1600 tpd sooner than the Q4 target, the mill at Bolanitos would be expanded to 2000 tpd this year instead of next . These moves will enable the company to raise 2014 production to 12-13 million SEO

        Also, no longer should the El Cubo discount be factored into the share price. The company has, as promised. turned the operation around and also as promised, El Cubo is rapidly becoming another Bolanitos.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

1.38-0.08(-5.48%)Nov 27 1:02 PMEST