We knew they were working with Oracle and now it turns out they are working with others. My guess is there are very few companies who can make the claim that their offering is protected by patented technology like Augme can make.
Our patent protected AD LIFE™ mobile marketing technology platform is gaining traction as a 'fully managed' software-as-a-service ('SaaS') offering. In fact, we are in discussions with several software industry leaders to partner on the deployment of a subscription revenue model together. For these reasons and more, we remain confident of achieving our guidance for the full fiscal year."
Double....though I doubt I have anywhere as much invested in AUGT as you, I agree with your approach.
I think when the market turns or AUGT announces something new that lights the stock up, we'll have plenty of time to buy more. This isn't a stock that's going to jump 100% in 10 minutes. When some good news comes and the liklihood it can get to $6-7-8 or higher becomes evident we'll be able to buy plenty of shares at a favorable price.
I'm more worried that we will crumble back below $2 than we will spike to above $4 in a blink. I like Arn's enthusiasm and certainly wish him well. If he's right he'll make a lot more than me....maybe even you....I'll be happy too....this isn't a contest.
Although none of us have a crytal ball and I'd never tell you what to do with your own money, I have been adding aggressively.
I think my actions can only be more telling than whatever additional words I could post.
I am invested in a lot of high groth speculative stocks. They all went down drastically. The market right now is unsure about the future and do not want to invest long term in high groth speculative stock. If your view is 12 months away, even at 100 % growth 30 millions in revenues do not justify a 250 millions market cap. I have invested a lot in this stock at an average price of $4.oo, I am considering adding more but I am afraid of the market,not the stock. If the actual sentiment persist on the market, this stock could still go substantially lower.For these reasons I am waiting and i believe a lot of other investors are also waiting to sea a real bottom holding for a while.
Most investors never do understand what they have completely invested in. Here if you add up Don Stout, David Reese, Todd Wilson, Goodwin Procter attorneys and now Fred DuFrense you see 2 + 2 adding up to much more than 4. None of these guys are going to put their reputation on the line unless they had high confidence in the Augme IP.
The other area of the company that people just do not get is the SaaS model and how it works. It will literally bolt on existing platforms from companies like Oracle. The fact that Oracle references the Augme patents in their own patents is significant. They already know the foundational value of the Augme IP. One IP book I am reading talks about not so much using IP as a barrier to entry but instead use it to form partnerships. I think this is exactly what is going on with Oracle. Imagine the day they announce some type of SaaS deal involving a company like that? It will be huge and revenues will ramp much quicker.
I am also very comfortable buying in this price range. My last buys were in the $2.60's and I have little doubt in the future many of us will look back and wish we had bought more.
I think your house/painting in the attic analogy is a good one, just Keep in mind that the market is composed of knowledgable folks who took time to look in the attic and know the difference between an old Renoir and an old Renault, and those who are only impressed by the house from the curb.
Yes, I concede that an saas licensing model could curve the revenue ramp up sharply and a successful legal win could yield us in a quick 10 bagger, but a 20% q/q growth rate yields a nearly 100 % y/y rate and that isn't too shabby.
I think they may be a quarter or so behind in the ramp up and I for one will be surprised to see them hit 16 million in revenues(reportable) for the year unless the ramp takes an upward parabolic turn. If your hunches about the saas licensing model happen starting this quarter, though, I would be most pleased to eat my words. If a legal settlement/licensing deal goes through, same thing.
I still think the revenue miss has caused some people to turn sour. You have to remember that many people have not spent the time to understand this company the way that you do. I have a fair understanding of this company, and can honestly say that I have never spent so much time researching a company as I have with Augme, but still do not have the technical understanding of the importance of the IP and I have spent hours reading patents, court briefs, depositions etc. I think you can imagine people who just bought on a momentum play might just see the numbers down, see the stock price fall and hit the eject button. Knowledge is power and just like you, I began buying again.
I agree with your theory on the market weakness having an affect although disagree with the financials having much to do with recent weakness. I think by all accounts, even yours, which I respect, the company is executing very much in line just as it promised. I will grant you the matrix for modeling and predicting that growth has been confusing due to the deferred revenues component, but I think the billings figure is the best indication of growth, hence why both the company and analysts are now referencing it. I'm sure you've seen this same issue with other company's and their revenue recognition requirements.
Directionally, net, net, we care about billings. That figure was 8% above our estimates and +21% q/q.
Directionally most telling + language in the PR in our view is …” We continued to chalk up wins during the quarter, with several new large enterprise clients which have 'household' names joining our expanding list of blue chip customers. Also, we are proud of the growing number of repeat orders in
our system which validates our services. Our patent protected AD LIFE(TM) mobile marketing technology platform is gaining traction as a 'fully managed' software-as-a-service ('SaaS') offering. In fact, we are in discussions with several software industry leaders to partner on the deployment of a subscription revenue model together
Since the Company issued its first public conference call last month, the stock has been weak, however, in our view, nothing fundamentally has changed. In fact, we continue to believe the story, while still very early, is continuing to strengthen. · We believe the IP story, while event driven in nature, continues to be heavily discounted. At current market capitalization of ~$200M, we believe the market is ascribing approximately $2.50-$2.75 in IP value, and virtually nothing to its fledgling mobile advertising business. We continue to believe in time, three stories will unfold, 1) the Company’s fledgling mobile advertising business will begin to significantly ramp starting in F2Q, 2) the Company will add a predictable software licensing model to its business model faster than expected, and 3) the Company will capitalize on its significant IP portfolio in multiple ways, in turn unlocking significant shareholder value. · We remain opportunistic buyers of AUGT for longer-term holders, and believe 2H FY’12 could provide upside to our sales estimates, in what we believe could be a back end-loaded FY’12. In particular, if the Company is able to establish a licensing strategy faster than we expect, it would shift the business model from its current “high-touch” model to more “visible and recurring revenue streams”, with greater hooks into its customers given the valuable data and analytics AD Life provides for potential personalized marketing. We maintain our Outperform rating, “Top Pick” status, and $5.75 price target on shares of AUGT, which is based on a sum-of-the parts analysis.
I believe you've been following the company for some time. Do you find it almost comical like I do that there is such a now myopic focus on projections and analysts comments on the mobile business? They were once valued higher only on the patents and now everyone is focussing on financials. To date, VHC still has no actual business, only its patents, and it's $26.
I look at the company as a 3 legged stool and think the market is erroneously only valuing the weakest of the three, the two others being the Saas model and the IP. Frankly, I think even the analysts got it wrong. They're focussed on a $16M revenue stream when their is a potential billion dollar revenue stream right in front of them. The comp should be VHC, the model should be VHC. Instead they are fixated on the mobile business.
People continue to value the house alone while ignoring the one of a kind priceless paintings stored in its attic.
My question is are the majority of revenues from the quarter recurring revenues, such that they are on a 8 million run rate now and they are estimating to get to 16 for the year they need to get to get another 2 million per quarter