(With two court dates with Yahoo! and TBD (AOL) as well as settlement w/ Lucid, we believe it is a matter of “when”, not “if” AUGT will realize its true intrinsic value, and maintain our long-term positive view on shares.)
Thank you for clarifying the time you posted and your thoughts. I too am looking for a lower entry point for more shares, though with any stock trying to pick the low (or high) is a crapshoot, and many times I've found that it's better to be lucky than good. I am underwater on Augme now, but not so far from break-even to worry me.
I agree that the IP is itriguing, and is truly the ace in the hole for Augme. If the IP is validated through successful litigation, cash will be abundant, and this stock will go dramatically higher. Funding growth in the space, and prosecuting more infringers, will then be easily catalyzed.
Where we disagree is in the current status of the core business, and what kind of traction and growth will occur over the next 8-9 months. You have soured on Management's inability to meet targets, while I am impressed with the fact that Arena inherited a broken company, realized that they weren't going to cut it, acquired HC to shore up marketing/sales, and crystallized and implemented an aggressive IP strategy. I see a growing list of Marquis customers with high gross margins that should lead to stronger earnings, and you see a failed execution of same.
In the end what we think really doesn't matter. The stock will go where it goes based on larger forces than us that are beyond our control, good news or a lack thereof. We are all trying to make money at this, so if we can gleam some nuggets of wisdom from each other that will help us accomplish that, it's a good thing.
In the meantime, while we agonize over the pps and whether it will go up or down, entry points, risks and rewards, hopefully Augme Management is busy at work doing whatever is necessary to bring home a big payday for us all, whether it's from revenue growth, IP settlements, or both.
From a financial perspective, how do you think Millineal Media is able to justify a $1 billion market cap when their revenues are really only 50% higher than Augme's? MM's revs are 2X Augme's but their market value 5X and they have margins 25 points lower? Why was Amobee bought at $321 million with trailing revenues of only $22 million? What do you think is a proper trailing revenues multiple for the space and what's an appropriate multiple of current sales in your opinion? TIA
I would probably be comfortable buying in at somewhere around a $150-175 million market cap given the advancement of the legal side of the business, however, I believe that there's going to be some additional dilution on the horizon, so let's say $175 million assuming 125 million fully diluted shares (since I believe they still have to finish paying for HipCricket which I would assume would require the issuance of around another 20 million shares and also believe that they're going to need to raise some addt'l cash to get them through until the lawsuits with AOL and Yahoo! are resolved, so let's call that another 5 million at least).
It seems that the market is either not happy with the revenue #'s or know that there will be some sort of dilution in the not too distant future in judging by the weakness in the share price recently despite the market having been largely green this week.
I'm on the west coast so it was 12:30 am here, not 3:30 am.
I don't own the stock currently and I'm not short the stock either (I've never been short the stock btw).
I'm here because I find the potential of the IP to be compelling. I've followed the stock for a couple of years now. I wouldn't rule out buying the stock again at some point in the future if there were developments (hopefully positive) on the either the IP (more likely) or mobile business (less likely) side of the business that made me think that the valuation was compelling. I also plan on owning at least a little of the stock after the July earnings report, when, IMO, the share price will likely decline again when we see how much cash they burned and the need for additional dilution becomes obvious.
I'm also going to respond to goldenenchild (one of the multi-ID posters here as well) with this post:
#1, you're not "guessing" I'm in the finance industry, you know I am based on some of the conversations we've had over on the IV board under yet another ID of yours.
#2, as far as not being able to see the forest through the trees, while you've been pumping away for at least the two years I've been following the stock, I've been saying that the mobile business wasn't going to grow at anywhere near the rate that management or their analysts would have you believe and I've been spot on. In fact, maybe they should consult with me since apparently despite the fact that I'm not in the mobile industry, I've been a helluva lot more accurate in projecting their revenues and the fact that they wouldn't be cash flow positive than they have been thus far. I don't need to see the forest through the trees at this time. The bottom line is that people who have listened to me have done better than the people who have listened to you have, and believe me, if and when there's a big move, I'll be back in in plenty of time to reap the rewards...
Lol! Nice post Spetty, it's all good. I know you or anyone else on this board cannot move the stock, I wasn't implying that. I also don't mind you tangling with those who only see augme through rose colored glasses - it's entertaining...but..I still hope you get your "re"buy-in price. The only company that is truely kicking butt in mobile that nobody talks about is google. 4-5 billion in revenues this year in mobile alone I believe is what google is expecting. All the other companies like augt/mm/velt are fighting for the scraps. I thought the 1Q revenues were decent enough - I am seeing some growth out of this company now. Arena still is an enigma to me, and I don't like that trait in a leader. I believe Ivan will be running the show before too long anyway - if he wants it - too talented to hide in the shadows for much longer - besides its his company (hipcricket) thats driving revenues...we'll see.
Just b/c the post says 3:27 am doesn't mean that is when he is posting. No one knows what actual timezone he is in.
I'm curious as to what market cap you think Augme is a good deal at and what it is overvalued at. Personally I believe anything below 200 million is good as revenues should approach 50 million within a few years which would put it at say 4 times revenue? Also, I believe it was Braiker who said there were 8 figure deals in the works. If you sign a few of them, then Augme should be able to hit its targets and maybe be break even this year. I'm waiting for judgment on the mobile business for this year and in the meantime hoping that the lawsuits go in our favor so the mobile business is just icing on the cake.
You have said that you used to own Augme, but you don't now, and that you are not short. Are you planning to buy or short the stock? If so, why, and at what target prices? If not, why are you here? I'm just trying to understand the motives of someone who is up at 3:27 AM with one of the longest posts I've seen on this board. Surely you have something better to do at that hour!