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Augme Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • mets2yak mets2yak Jul 24, 2012 8:16 AM Flag

    Voice Assist and Augme...

    It will be interesting how this relationship will work out. I know a lot of us were interested in how they would work together. This is a start, but I still would like to see specifics. Any input would be appreciated.

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    • Wannabee,

      Your not far of the $3.50 the analysts are using for valuation of the mobile by itself. If you look at the Amobee purchase at $321M that is another good data point. I think as the company continues to grow 15-20% quarter over quarter that multiplier will be much higher than 10X and valuation will be closer to $500-750M more in the line of the AdMob purchase.

      Conclusion/Stock Valuation

      Augme is one of the only pure-play publicly traded providers of a complete end-to-end mobile marketing platform. Additionally, the market for mobile advertising is growing rapidly and is expected to exceed $20 billion by 2015 driven by the increased penetration of smartphones such as the iPhone, Blackberry, and numerous Android devices1. The Company is deserving of a premium valuation as one of the only public companies in a highly desirable industry. Shares of AUGT have sold off following the June 12, 2012 release of disappointing preliminary results for Q1/13 for revenues of $5.0 to $5.3 million compared to consensus expectations of $6.3 million. However, the strong guidance provided by management on the Q1/13 earnings call for sequential quarter-to-quarter revenue growth of 10-20% for the remainder of FY2013 indicates that the slow growth in Q1/13 was an anomaly, as opposed to a trend. Management also reaffirmed that they expect to achieve cash-flow breakeven by the end of FY2013. Further, Augme’s lawsuits against both AOL and Yahoo! (Nasdaq/YHOO/NR) will begin trial within the next six months. We believe that upside catalysts include continued growth in the core business, additional monetization of intellectual property, and new mobile advertising contracts with marquee clients. We have valued Augme on a sum-of-the-parts basis, as detailed below:

      Core Business – 10X FY2014E sales of $41.0 million, discounted to present value at 25% - $3.50/share in value

      Intellectual Property – Potential damages of $500 million, adjusted for estimated legal fees of 20% and probability weighted at 60% for a value of $240 million, or $2.50/share. Yahoo! (Nasdaq/YHOO/NR) had display advertising sales of $2.15 billion in FY2010 and $2.16 billion in FY2011. Assuming a 40% gross margin, 50% of Yahoo!'s total display ads falling into the behaviorally targeted segment, and a 66% value add over traditional ad serving yields over $500 million in damages for FY2010 and FY2011 alone. The Company also has multiple other lawsuits pending.

      Thus, we are maintaining our BUY rating on shares of AUGT with a price target of $6.00.

      Catalysts/Investor Timeline

      1) Q2/13 (ending August) financials released – October 2012
      2) Markman ruling in case against Pandora (NYSE/P/NR) – H2 CY2012
      3) Trial date in case against AOL – H2 CY2012
      4) Stock listing on Nasdaq Global Market – H2 2012
      5) Beginning of trial against Yahoo! – January 8, 2013
      6) Potential announcement of intellectual property licensing deals – CY2012/2013

    • How's this Charley.

      Wild guess.

      They just did $5+ million in 1st qtr and that was flat qtr over qtr.

      2nd qrt = $7.1 mil
      3rd qtr = $8.2 mil
      4th qtr = $9.1 mil

      Total FY '13 sales = $29.5 mil +/-

      10 x sales = $295 mil market cap. I forget the total shares. 93 million? Hopefully not more. So a price of $3.20 tops.

      Of course if our friends at Goodwin Proctor do what we hope they are capable of....well...I would expect it to be higher.

      If the market continues to be as krappie as it is. Think 5-7 x sales and basically the share price will languish in the $2 give or take range. And don't count on $29.5 mil in sales. Don't count on cash flow positive. Don't count on another need for cash.

      If a lawsuit fails. The company will no longer be valued on a P/S basis. The price will crater. $1 likely. If not lower.

      I'm still waiting on this financing deal. I'm prepared for something not too pretty. That's been the pattern. Till something changes....that will be my position.

    • You never answered my question. What are you expecting for next quarter revenues? Do you remember when you posted here that if they did 30-40 million in revenues next year it should be a 5-8 stock? Those are your exact words. Why no response? Seems you don't like to be held accountable for your own statements. Do you want me to repost it word for what came out of your own mouth. Why do you now not stand behind your own comments?

    • Spetty,

      Perhaps Epstein has requested his name not be put out there. He was afterall put forward on the proposed slate of directors Starboard was trying to get on AOL's board. Rumor has it Stout was also asked to be on it but declined.

      I think your post is spot on and I certainly take no offense to you saying it. I'd assume management could also appreciate your point. I think it's the truth, management does need to restore some lost credibility. I too agree that is precisely the reason the shares are currently so dramatically undervalued.

      Management credibility is really everything when it comes to small companies and the creation of shareholder value.

      I strongly believe they soon regain that confidence, others may disagree, it's certainly well within their right. Over the years, I've seen management of all sorts of company's come under intense scrutiny for the same. With a higher stock price and fundamental progress, perceptions can be changed almost overnight. That could easily be the case here. Some, excluding yourself, might be well served to go back and listen to the recent call since many have short memories.

    • spetty, I agree completely. As I've said before, all we have from the 7/10 conference call is "sizzle", and we now need the steak, and we need it soon. While I am expecting that we will get it, until such time that the steak is brought to the table, Arena's credibility remains an issue. The dam* steak better be Pan Sauteed Filet Mignon with Caramel-Brandy Mushroom Sauce, medium rare.

    • Your calling someone else a shill. Now that is funny. I don't care who you are, that is funny!

    • Rich,

      I'd be more insulted by your comment had I not seen you make it under at least four previous id's.

    • Arn's credibilty is shot. I'm surprised he still keeps shilling this thing.

      Again, if you can afford to hang in there, let's see what Goodwin Proctor can pull off. To me, they're the only ones who can turn this stock around.

    • Warn, I wouldn't pay too much attention the poster Arn. This is the same poster who for the past several years was insisting that Augme would see new highs soon. Kept repeating that over and over again. Disappears when the stock goes to lows and then re-appears again. He must have a fairly short memory or no shame at all.

    • Seems like something they should update their investor presentation with....

      I just hope they get something tangible done soon. I don't care if it's non-dilutive financing or a settlement or what it is. I think one of the main reasons that the stock price is so undervalued right now is because the market wants to see Arena deliver on something (anything) that he's promised.

      I know you like the job Arena's done and maybe if I'd been involved in this stock for as long as some here have, I would too, but I believe he has a credibility problem right now, and until he delivers something to start getting past that, the share price will continue to languish.

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