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Augme Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • warnbeeb warnbeeb Aug 17, 2012 9:19 AM Flag

    hard to spin this stuff....

    If you think the future of this company is strictly the core business and you can live with the notion that there is a serious chance that there will be no licensing/infringemnet revenue from patents...and you still want to hold a large position in AUGT...fair enough. GL.

    I don't happen to think the core business can sustain this market cap. They have to grab a licensing deal quick to infuse some cash. That seems to be what they've implied. They imply a lot of stuff and so far, none...NONE...of it has has come to fruition. I doubt they will become break even or cash flow positive this year. They've promised similar stuff in the past and havn't come close to delivering. I doubt they will meet their sales forecasts. They havn't met any previous need to think they will now. I choose to go by their actual results. Not their rhetoric.

    I will wait to see if what's left of their AOL litigation turns out to be something. Tacoda is out. YHOO is out. If AOL goes...then you're left with the Mellenial and the Pandora and the Velti stuff....probably next year, at best.

    Fortunately, I don't have a big egg in this nest. I wanted to buy more. It's been a year since my last nibble. It's clearly turned out to be correct. For those who have continued to average down and down and have my sympathy. I sincerely wish you well and hope you can get back to even. I mean it. GLTA.

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    • I would agree usually but if that shareholder is posting information that is consistently shown to have been innacurate or not factual, I'd argue that helps nobody. That has unfortunately been the case with much of what he has posted.

    • First off, I do not subscribe to Warn's bearishness. HOWEVER, just because he comes to a different conclusion then most of the rest of us doesn't mean that he is wrong, nuts, a basher or any other negative thing. He certainly in no way is responsible for the declining sale price. Every investor can determine for themselves whether this is a good investment or not. I don't believe Warn has that much influence over the stock price. I think it is good to have other opinions on this board. I don't think his opinions are malicious or calculated to misinform.
      We are all frustrated about how things are going price wise for this stock. Let's concentrate on providing pertinent information, not on ways to trash a fellow stockholder.

    • wake, indeed I am not advocating bashing without basis.

    • wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom Aug 18, 2012 8:17 PM Flag

      Good analysis and logic. I agree that ultimately every investor is responsible for the decisions they make, regardless what the influence might be. I make no excuses for that. I hope though, that you are not trying to make the case that there is something good about relentless bashing of the stock, that is completely counter-intuitive to me.

      Regardless of whether he did or did not buffalo some weenies into selling at a loss (i believe operating the way he does, does influence that), I think it creates a climate of fear and doubt and distorts the picture of reality in which every person must make an assessment daily in their decision to buy, sell, or hold, which diminishes the efficiency of the market. As taomet pointed out the other day, the share price is down in the mud do more to distorted perception than the reality.

    • wake, let's set aside all emotion on the Warn matter, and look at it only from the perspective of logic.

      1. Many investors purchased Augme stock over the past 3-5 years.
      2. Most investors paid more for their stock than it is worth today. It closed Friday at $1.55/share.
      3. There are many possible reasons why Augme is at a lower price today than it was when many investors bought it.
      4. One of those reasons might be that Warn bashed the stock mercilessly, and influenced some to sell their stock, and possibly influenced others not to buy stock. The precise impact is impossible to ascertain.
      5. Augme has an intrinsic value, based on verifiable facts regarding the company's financial and business activities (some publicly known, and others not) at any point in time, that those skilled in the art could calculate.
      6. Augme's stock price may or may not reflect its intrinsic value, it might be higher or lower.
      7. "Long" investors prefer to buy stocks whose current stock price is below its intrinsic value, giving them a greater opportunity to prosper from their investment.
      8. Investors are responsible for their own actions, and should do adequate due diligence prior to buying or selling stocks.

      9. If Warn did not influence shareholders to sell Augme stock, he did not affect the stock price, therefore no one was harmed by Warn's actions.
      10. If Warn did not influence potential shareholders not to buy stock, he did not affect the stock price, therefore no one was harmed by Warn's actions.
      11. If Warn did influence shareholders to sell stock, and persuaded others not to buy stock, he influenced the stock price to decline.
      12. If the stock price declined below its intrinsic value, investors would then have the opportunity to buy stock at a discount to its intrinsic value, which is what investors prefer to do. Such investors would be able to make more money than if they had purchased stock at a price closer to, or higher than, its intrinsic value once the stock goes up.

      13. Either Warn's actions had no impact on Augme's stock price, or his actions caused the stock price to decline allowing Longs to purchase more Augme shares with the same funds, improving their leverage and potential financial outcome, should such Longs have the patience and wisdom to hold said stock long enough for it to attain, or exceed, its intrinsic value.

      I, for one, decide on purchasing stocks based on my own analysis. While I wasn't perfect in the timing of my Augme purchases, I must say that I was very happy to have been able to purchase stock at prices below what I believe is Augme's intrinsic value. For whatever part Warn might have played in that, I am indeed grateful.

      I am really looking forward to the comments I know will be coming :)

    • I am with you on this Wake, Warn's presence here, by his own explanation, never made any sense. He said he was a millionaire with a small (percentage wise) stake in Augme. Yet he was ubiquitous. It made no sense on any human level. He said he did it for entertainment. That is too pathetic to be true.

      Being that he always maintained that the ONLY reason he owned this stock was a lottery ticket on IP settlements, with the Yahoo/AOl trial dates removed, his stated reason for owning the stock was removed. I just called him out on that. I doubt he will go because none of what he has ever said had the ring of truth to it.

      For me, I am all in here, I am very disappointed in recent developments, which were unforeseeable and no one's fault, but I still believe in the business and the people in charge. I believe things will move in our favor and our patience will be rewarded.

    • Wake, you are certainly correct about the 1 stars. I have noticed over the last few days that a number of posts that I thought were informative, well reasoned, and rational and not necessarily all that bullish, were given one stars immediately after they appeared. Very interesting!! You are also very correct about patience and stocks going up after they are sold. That is why I posted the other day about my experiences with IDCC and PANL and how they went up dramatically after I had held them for years. The message was I had learned the virtue of patience with small growing companies.

    • wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom Aug 18, 2012 3:32 PM Flag

      That poster was from a few years ago, and he relentlessly attempted to take the company down single handedly. He went by 'stylecounselor', and it was discovered who he was. He had the name of bob something, so he was affectionately referred to as 'special bob' or other names like that. I know opinions vary on this, but he did a tremendous amount of damage in my opinion, because, as i said, negative sentiment can raise a big red flag to the otherwise uninitiated when doing their DD, however, it is the subtle comments and operators that otherwise seem very reasonable that do the most damage because they gain the trust, while those that bash with a sledge hammer are easily and readily dismissed as cranks ala special-bob.

      From what I could gather, he followed other poster on various boards, and in augt he did something, based on something someone said, sold his shares early at a loss and missed a huge run-up which brought out the person looking to blame others for their miscalculations. I am not really sure what his beef was, but the fact that he would attempt to destroy others investments for some misguided vendetta, is reprehensible.

      emstimbo got 12 stars pretty soon after posting a very positive statement (despite the gay reference which I think is his way of bringing attention to the statement), so there must be several of those with multiple ids doing the negative rating. I believe, that i have noticed that otherwise normal interested investors will give a negative rating to a positive post because they don't believe it agrees with how they feel at the time, so I think some comes from everyday shareholders that are discouraged. Its the subtle bottom-feeders that prey on that negative sentiment, and guide the sheep to slaughter. Keep in mind for every person that posts regularly, there may be 20 or more that only observe, or seldom post.

      I am heightened though, that alot of shareholders that may have been buffaloed out by the wolves in the past, will at some point in the future, take another look, and get back in again, because the company has a compelling story, but that will happen when they finally start to overcome the relentless negative news and other craap that seems to deluge them. I feel it is getting closer by the day, and at some point it will start up and not look back. What goes around comes around... the law of reciprocity. Augme has been paying a price for many years in the struggle, the prize is getting ever more close.

    • Excellent post. Everything you said is exactly true in my opinion. Only thing you need to know is that all the 1 recs are comign from mainly one basher who has created handfulls of ids. Just look at this morning, we have two posters here hfb and jason who are both incredibly intelligent and right on with their comments and within 10 minutes of their posts, someone has rated them 1's. I sat there and refreshed my browswer and it was so obvious it was one person logging in and out to rec it that way. Really makes you ask yourself why would someone go to such extremes to try and conceal insightful and intelligent posts but give 5 stars to posts that are factually innacurate and emotionally motivated. That framergregs post told me a lot a few days ago. There are some posters here with a personal agenda. It's a shame they don't realize that there actions are hurting innocent shareholders. Whether they admit to it or not, they are intentionally trying to manipulate a public security for their own sick and twisted personal self satisfaction. What was the deal with that poster he was referring to that you seemed to know about?

    • wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom Aug 18, 2012 12:49 PM Flag

      I love your heart, but i question your judgement on this.

      "...for Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light..."
      2 Corinthians 11:14

      He has never been like you or i, civil discussion notwithstanding, and I dont believe he will ever change because his agenda is something different, despite what he might say. Anyone that 'owns' shares and bashes relentlessly, albeit, sometimes very subtly, is just not what they appears to be. We may have found out the other day that ifly is something different than what we thought too, when he said he was writing a book on message boards. I'm not sure I believe him yet, but he says he is finished, TWT. This might explain his relentless bashing as well... it certainly makes sense.

      Warn showed up just after the biggest run up the company has had so far, started questioning everyone, would not listen and learn, but immediately started bashing, and has never stopped, and it has has plummeted precipitously since then. I am not saying that is all his doing, but I believe that alot of the impetus for new investors to get in and stay, is this board and the IV board. Back a few years ago, I read the IV board, which is what prompted me to stay in. You have to acknowledge the feedback loop of effect the public discussion of the company has on the attitude of the investing public, and how much more difficult that makes the job of management. They have had their share of foibles, but a small seed of negativity can be amplified and resonate right into the company, and the public. A low share price, and negative sentiment makes their job and decisions very difficult. They have said as much when they said to you that the individual shareholders mostly support the share price right now... meaning the institutional support is insignificant. Sentiment means alot to a small struggling company, and this company has a bad sentiment, and some of that may be due to unmet high expectations, but alot is from bashing which starts the ball rolling. Between the IV and yahoo message board, there may near 1500 individuals reading about the company daily. Where do you think all the 1 stars come from, when things are down? Look at emstimbo posting 'no white flag here' and getting 12 1 stars, what is wrong with this? I think people really want to believe in the company because it has a compelling story, but so many are on the fence. The warns of the world expend very little energy pushing them over. Growth and construction are much more difficult to achieve than destruction.

      It works the other way around as well. I was tempted to dump my considerable shares right after the last election in '08, and started selling figuring things were going into the toilet, but i stayed in for a ride to $4 in march of '09 because I read IV and this board. It was people like joeiniowa that convinced me to hold on. I don't regret doing that.

      I am also encouraged that Paul Arena has acknowledged and said he will address the gap between perception and reality, because that is sooooo important.

      If warn feels his mission here is done, then I say let him go.

      the part about selling the last share only to have it explode on you afterward... I have been there. I bet alot of the more mature investors here have. That is where faith and forbearance are learned.

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