Finally someone with a little common sense. Ivan Braiker is as honest of a guy as you'll ever meet. He's well respected by pretty much everyone in the space. If he tells you something, it's true. I've met him personally and listened to the call. Here's what he said:
"I think you’re going to see the bookings continue to be strong – well they are going to be strong. I think where we – as I mentioned earlier, I think we’ll all be very proud of the quarter that we’re in right now and we’re looking forward to the call that we’ll be doing three months from now and we’ll be able to report that."
Will it be a blow out Q? I don't know what you call a blow out, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they see 30% sequential growth instead of the 15%-20% they cited and that's without any huge deals. I have heard of a few they are working on and if even one comes in, they are game changers. This is no surprise though since more deals are getting large in size. What now is a big deal will shortly be more of the norm. We're only scratching the tip of the iceburg. Does anyone realize how few company's are able to report they had better than 20% sequential growth quarter to quarter? Better, it's happening while we're still in the bottom of the first inning and nowhere close to the mobile inflection point. 95% retention, 30 new customers, fortune 500 brands increasing ad spend, new experienced regional VP's, and hands down the best mobile platform offering and customer service in the space. Year over year growth for this company should come in close to 92%. Their just getting a hed of steam, wait till next year, if they are still around. People love to forget where just entering the mobile revolution where the company is positioned so perfectly.
I don't know when the stock turns but it will. If it has trouble doing so on its own, it will when someone comes in and tries to acquire the company for a few bucks. Braiker and his guys cost basis is $3.15 on most of their shares. I'm sure they will get it back to at least that point. Even the most conservative of people, analysts or skeptics could argue the mobile business alone is worth at least $2 right now. They get to a $40 million run rate in Q4 and it's worth twice that in my eyes and based on comps. That's with no value for the patents and I'm not so sure they aren't possibly really valuable in the right hands.
I would consider anywhere close to $8 million in Q3 impressive at close to 30% sequential growth. They're only forecasting 15-20%. Remember, even if they closed a big deal right now, they wouldn't be able to recognize that type of revenue immediately. The big deals they are referencing are multi-year deals which are recognized over the course of the contract. I think $9.5-10 million in Q4 is realistic and would put them right at that $40 million run rate I've been talking about. Don't forget, me and you are talking about recognized revenues. If they recognize $8 million in a quarter, they really actually sold much more in the neighborhood of probably $10 million. It's those total bookings or sales in the quarter that will determine the eventual sale price of the company. What's funny about this conversation is that not long ago, the company basically had no revenues and was trading at a $300 million valuation. Now they are hitting it out of the park in the hottest space going towards a $40 million run rate, more revenues in one Q than almost half the prior year and the stock is trading at a ridiculous $80 million market cap. Never will you find a stock so disconnected from reality than this one. I've really never seen anything like it.