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Augme Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • momokamas momokamas Oct 24, 2012 11:46 AM Flag

    AUGT valuation as ADMOB $750 mil

    google acquired ADMOB for $750 mil base of admob 20 mil rev in the last Q .....think about it how much worth AUGT today and by next year.....glta

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • And Augme bought HipCricket (which is generating all of their sales) at 4X revenues after ADMOB was bought. Amobee was bought out for 12X ttm revenues most recently. Please don't even start with the ADMOB pumping again. It's been tried here before and it doesn't work, Augme isn't getting bought out for 20-25X ttm revenues, period. Lastly, just because another company was "bought out" for a certain value doesn't mean that every other company in the space is worth the buyout multiple. As I'm sure you're aware, buyouts are usually done at a premium, and sometimes a huge premium, to the company's current price.

      If you want to know approximately what Augme should be worth, it's approx 8.2X ttm sales, the same as Millenial Media. AUGT currently trading at 3.17X ttm sales. So is it undervalued, yes. By about 258% (8.2/3.17) . Take $75.25 million (Augme's current market cap) and multiply it by 2.58 (the amount that they're potentially undervalued by). You'll get ~$195 million. Divide that by the # of outstanding shares (let's call it 115 million since we know there will be addt'l dilution for the rest of the HipCricket earn-out soon). That $1.70/share. Best case (giving no value for the patents), that's what the company is potentially "worth" right now in a non-buyout scenario. In a buyout scenario, using Amobee as the baseline as it's the most recent and most similar to Augme, take 1.70 x 1.5 = $2.55/share. That's what Augme is likely "worth" IF they were to be BOUGHT OUT. Not what they're worth NOW, the total amount that they'd likely get for the company after the buyout premium was added in. As each quarter goes by and the ttm sales increase, those #'s should increase.

    • AUGT valuation should be at $250 mil(base of rev of 1/3 of admob)or pps of $3 today and as rev increases then valuation will increase.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • toomuchjunkinthetrunk134 toomuchjunkinthetrunk134 Oct 24, 2012 12:04 PM Flag

      Good point!

 
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