I have always been long... and have lost huge %.... this looks terrible... is there any hope and if so what and when?
I said it before but I expect you will see no shortage of other investors that know Bob willing to buy shares with him now CEO. He's been around a long time and has considerable contacts on the street. Any one of his institutional contacts could buy the entire company if they chose to. He knows what he has and why he is there. I'd assume that $400 million sale valuation hurdle in his contract was not a number that was arrived at without considerable thought. Compared to what Bob's dealt with in the past, this one really is an easy fix.
We have our reasons. The primary one is we expect to make sizeable gains on our investment. Our internal models are in agreement with other analysts who have suggested a $2 valuation for just the mobile operations. I mentioned last week we were hearing of a forced liquidation from a fund that invested in one of the financings. While it looks just like that could be the case, along with some tax loss selling, we can't confirm it. It's likely some of the funds in the financings might want the position off their books by year end so they don't have to explain it to their investors. At the same time, there are those of us who look for situations just like this because of the tremendous opportunity it can create when a company's shares get beaten down well below a reasonable value.
Long term? There is no hope. AUGT's balance sheet is so poor that there is no way they can become a sustainable "long term" player in the mobile space. Their IP is not foundational, therefore they can't license it to anyone...and no one would buy it. Once the company goes bankrupt whoever wants to pick up the actual "mechanics" of mobile markting could do so for essentially...nothing.
AUGT will end up somewhere down around .25. I don't doubt that a nimble trader could buy and sell AUGT for 5-10 cent swings...which is not insignificant %wise.... but it is small potatoes unless your flipping 5 figure amounts of shares.
I lost over 1/2 my investment in AUGT in 17 months. If I'd hung on I'd have lost another 60% of that.
AUGT is, was and will remain a dreadful stock to invest in. There is almost no chance it will ever recover to anywhere near it's 52 week high. $3 will never happen. If you ever see $1...get what you can.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I disagree but to each his own. I guess the difference is I'm involved in the space and see what's happening with my own eyes. You're basically saying the company should trade at 1X's current sales which is insane. I expect the company is eventually acquired at much higher prices. I think if they put it up for sale with a banker right now it would fetch $2-2.50 and they'd be giving it away. The real irony is they already had real interest in just HC for a valuation almost 2x the current price and it was prior to last Q. Two companies interested, one floated a verbal offer that was not of interest. If I recall correctly, I think you applauded the acquisition of HC when they did the deal. They bought them for 70 million which is less than the entire current market value of the entire company. If you or anyone can make a logical arguement as to why HC and Augme togethor should now be worth less than just what Augme paid for HC alone, with their revenues now having over trippled and being on a $30 million current run rate and within maybe 2Q's of cashflow breakeven, then I'd love to hear it. I guess I should remember also that you once posted if the company got to $40 million in revenues, you wouldn't doubt it would be something like $8-$10?
agree steve.. all longs in the same sinking boat..IMO the only solution is for them to sell the company, take what we can get and move on..they will not be able to do another dilution down her..who would buy it? at what .40 or .30's? no they would have to do a RS and then try and dilute again..terrible..just sell it..