and take my tax loss. Augme is my single biggest loss of all time. Guess I will go down with the ship! The story and numbers sounded so good... amazing how far off my judgement was! I thought I was shooting the side of a barn, not a piece of corn! Geesh.. TSP
Spetty, glad to hear from you and wish you a Merry-Xmas. Now that you have called me out, get ready to be exposed like a sad duck in cold water. You ask if there are companies out there doing 100% growth? Let me point out 3 I have in my portfolio for you (EDAC, SPPI and XPO) remember these are 3 companes with market caps about a year ago that were similar to AUGT in the 60-100 mil range. All three are posting 35%, 25% and last XPO and insane 290% revenue on Q3 alone. All three are executing their plans as good as any and are returning good returns for investors like myself. Of the three XPO is my gem and got in as soon as Jacobs created this company so my average price is @ $3.00 x 50k Shares, yes you do the numbers as it will easily trade @ $29 by end of year 2013. I really thought that AUGT was going to do the same thing but as in every basket there are rotten eggs. But regardless how small a portion it is in my portfolio, I still try to manage and keep track of it daily, that's responsible investing. So for you to say just sell and get out is not only immature, but can tell you too are deep in your ankles on losses with AUGT. ALOHA for Maui!!
I just took a quick look at XPO b/c you said it did 290% revenue growth on Q3 alone. According to the seekingalpha article I saw it said this: "In Q3, freight brokerage revenue grew 290% (YoY) to $32.2 million, thus driving a 49.8% revenue growth (YoY) for the entire company to $71 million."
Correct me if I'm wrong but to me that says that the company YoY growth rate was 49.8% which would be less than the 94% spetty is saying AUGT grew revenues. So actually XPO is growing half as fast as Augme right?
My avg price is on AUGT is under .80 and that's not counting any of the profits I've made trading the stock over the past two years. I'm not in a bad position at all here, believe me. Good earnings on January 9th could easily put me well into the green within a day or two.
I asked you to name companies with an annual growth rate of 94% and you come back with one growing at like 20% annually, one growing at like 35% annually, and one that grew 50% sequentially, however, it was due to acquisitions, not organic growth as Augme's is.
In re: to the stocks you mentioned: I just took a look at XPO, and though their sequential quarterly revenues were up almost 50% for the most recent quarter, their operating loss increased from 3.368 million to 9.280 million, and this was all due to increased SG&A. So in order to gain 50% sequential growth they almost TRIPLED their operating losses. Their cash flow is also nothing to write home about.
Now compare that to AUGT. Their most recent quarterly revenues increased by 22% sequentially, but lo and behold, their operating loss DECREASED. Their cash outflow from operating activities DECREASED from $4.1 million to 2.95 million. It seems pretty apparent to me which company's expenses and and cash flow are going in the right direction as their revenues increase and which one's aren't. Q3 should be very telling for AUGT.
Further, XPO's growth is coming mainly from acquisitions, not organically. The same could've been said for AUGT last year however HC has now been fully-integrated and HC is continuing to grow revenues so AUGT isn't continuing to have to make acquisitions to grow their top line. But you're invested in both stocks so you know that already, and I think you also know that the revenue growth comparison you're making isn't apples to apples. From what I read the guy running XPO has been pretty successful in the past using a growth by acquisition strategy.
The other two aren't even worth talking about because their growth rates aren't even in the same ballpark as AUGT's. I'd take AUGT over all three of them hands down and will bet you right now that the return in AUGT within the next 12 months from today's prices will be far higher than any of the three you mentioned.
Want to shoot yourself in the foot? Go ahead! Looks like you may have done that already, but don't shoot your other foot too? This is investing not suicide! Just because you lost alot doesn't mean you need to lose more. My opinion go find something safer and worth putting money in. This is dead carcas for the next 12 months if we are lucky!!
If you don't think this is a great investment sell your shares and get out. Personally I don't know a better risk reward out there. The mobile side is worth between $200-300M depending how you want to do the comps. Figure they are at a run rate around $30M which is higher than a lot of the companies taken out in the past at those levels. If you have any stocks that you think will perform better than Augme next year please share them with us. My guess is you don't. I added more today.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If augt has figured out how to control costs while growing then we got something, if not....then more rough seas ahead. Let us see how the company responds - until Jan 9th I guess all opinons are in play. A quarter to be proud of will be one in which the stock prices rises after earnings, as a shareholder that is my only criteria to judge it.
If last year is any guide, the stock might rally somewhat after the new year. You gotta believe that tax loss selling has been affecting AUGT since Oct. A lot of really bad stocks in '12 might see a bounce in January. Happens every year. Comb the "worst stocks of '12 list" for some ideas.
I took my loss months ago at $1.55. Coupled with my EK loss and one nasty short position that didn't go my way I have tax losses to shelter 1/3 of my '12 profits.
I'm guessing here, but I think if you wait until the middle of January or thereabouts you might get a little more for your AUGT shares than you will now. But after that, I see AUGT heading towards new lows.
The question is: Do you need the tax loss more this year or next? Next year, of course, you will most likely have higher capital gains rates and the Obamacare 3.5% nick on capital gains, so there might be more benefit to using the tax loss in '13. Of course, you need to have a capital gain of any kind to offset with the AUGT losses or your loss is capped at $3000 with tax loss carry forwards thereafter.
GLTU. Merry Christmas.