Roth shops Hipcrickt around for a price based on 8XTTM revenue (use Millenial Media for comp), plus a 25% premium. That is $300 million, and pays a dividend of $275 million to shareholders (~$2.50/share, spetty help me out!).
We, Augme shareholders keep the IP and make a deal with IDCC or Acacia for some up-front cash, and 50% of whatever license revenues are collected over time, which could be several billion over next few years, w/out any overhead associated. Augme become a shell or IP only company like VHC.
This is a scenario that would suit me, and I am sure many others because it gets some immediate roi, with the long term IP play, and removes the burden of periodic financing.
Why doesn't Roth take every available dollar he has at his disposal. There must be several million dollars sitting in AUGT accounts.
Go buy all the Powerball tickets he can.
He has a better chance of winning that than he does of selling Hipcricket for more than 1/2 what AUGT paid for it. Might get $25 million for it if he's lucky. Real lucky.
The fact of the matter is that HC doesn't have anything unique about them other than they're already in business.
As alluded to yesterday. The big boys, GOOG, et al can create a HC business in house. No one needs to buy HC. Got it? The technology is out there. The people with the brains to do it are all over the place. Despite what you might think the barriers to entry are not that high.
Warn, there goes billy the village idiot again. Talking about how we cuda, shouda, but didn't. I now here comes the pumpers again saying just one more dilution and we are home!! Haven't we heard that one how many times now? No matter how bad these pumpers get slapped in the face they still keep the pump on. Fact is they have lost ALL credibility. You and farmer and juice were right they were WRONG. In fact going further, the results were mediocre at best. The backlog went DOWN. The used up almost all their money in what 1 quarter?!!! And the pumpers think only one more dilution? Their nicknames oughta be dororthy as in the Wizard of Oz. Just keep wishing guys, keep thinkin I think we can, I think we can and maybe one day your wish will come true. Just not for a long long time. Oh but if we only knew right? If we only knew what was going on behind the scenes. Its only a matter of time, right? Oh and they hired Roth, must be somethin good going on. Can you say DILUTION!! buahwahhahahahahah, you guys are pathetic. At least that guy Arn had the decency to disappear since he lost ALL credibility. And time continues to reinforce just how wrong you pumpers really are. open your eyes.
Brilliant analysis from the millionaire posting on a message board about a stock he does not own. So HP's established relationship with clients who are extremely satisfied with its performance, has no value. Interesting
Wake, I don't know if you remember, or read it and then forgot about it, then re remembered it ( Roger Clemens lol) but I posted the exact same thing awhile back VERBATIM. that was the way it was supposed to go down, that is exactly what Paul had in mind. once the patents were validated through a Yahoo settlement or trial victory, which would have been now, Acacia was going to license the patents, 50/ 50.( remember mutually beneficial? ) they were going to give us anywhere from 5 to 10,000,000 up front. then, and only then, were they going to shop hipcricket around. I believe, at the time, Paul was looking for at least 250 million, which as you say, would have been applied to a 1 time dividend payment for 2 dollars a share or something in that ballpark. maybe even 3 dollars with a lower float. since many of us here are averaged out lower than the dividend payment, we essentially would have bought the stock for absolutely nothing, had all our shares, IP validation, and wait for Paul Ryan and Acacia to start hammering the infringers to get us more stock appreciation.. very little over head, as you say, while Acacia does most of the work. we would have been like VHC, which Paul had spoken about in the first shareholder meeting that I attended.. once spero ruled against us, acacia recalled the letter that was in the mail with the check. that's why you saw truthbetold and all of the bravado; it was a done deal.. but then we got Sperod and started that chain of cataclysmic events which we are still reeling from... will we get to 40 dollars per share like VHC?.. maybe not but we will make a lot of money. not dead, just delayed.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
so let me get this straight billy, are you saying truthbetold has and was posting about inside info. i dont recall any company memo to the masses that would support your post. please show us where we can find out about the acacia letter that was recaled. tia greg
I remember some discussion about that, but was not aware of all the detail. I have mixed feelings about it now as well as then. I would rather the company hold it all together and get past the financing issues without more dilution, and become profitable w/IP intact, and the advantage it brings once validated. That wont happen until cash flow break even and shareholders may take an offer if tendered now. The shareprice seems to be affected by some doubt about something from somewhere, and no one seems to know the reason why, other than the financing issue.
I brought it up now as a possible scenario that may be considered by RH, who is incentivized to facilitate the sale of the company, and maximize shareholder value. It is a way to get past the negative financing issues, but leave the large IP potential intact, while the value of it is established.
It makes some sense because it allows realization of full value for the HC asset while giving the IP a chance to playout w/out ongoing financing/dilution issues. Keep in mind, many bought in when Augme was mostly IP, and had little in the way of revenue. They were like VHC then, with very little overhead compared to now. Whatever scenario happens, I hope it does so in the near future w/out too much more drama. I think many current shareholders, myself included, want to see something substantial and positive very soon.
Wake....that is a quick bail out scenerio at best! why would you settle for that deal if you know we will be cash flow positive in 6 months? At this point we are only one funding raise away from all this mess. The industry is not even at the inflection point yet. To put it in a frame of something we all can remember, this industry is where Internet revolution was in early nineties! Just be patient. Give this pony another 3-4 years and see what it will be. The only worry we have right now is cash on hand.....just one more time at best and we are home.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"...why would you settle for that deal if you know we will be cash flow positive in 6 months? At this point we are only one funding raise away from all this mess..."
Like most anything, without being very articulate on all the details, whatever i say is likely to be misconstrued and misunderstood. I should have emphasized more the fact that this is a worst case scenario for me, and just to be clear, I would not want to do this now if avoidable. I tried to explain that with another possible round of dilution looming, that as an alternative to a price in the $0.40 range (after another pipe deal) this may have been proposed by 'someone', and may have been considered by the CEO acting in the interests of the shareholder. There is no secret that this company has been under financial stress for some time, and while I believe in long term perspective and persevering, there is a point in time... Its kind of like, if you cant pay for your house, should you sell it or take a devils deal, and mortgage your children's future to keep it. You do what you have to do.
The idea came to me based on others saying the Roth people were hired for a possible asset sale scenario. It was more thinking out loud on my part and soliciting others opinions. I tend to do that when I want to see my way past whatever the situation is. I sometimes forget that you have to be very careful when saying it because it may not be taken the way you intend.
This scenario, or something like it was already considered earlier, as billy pointed out. I remember the discussion.
My point was simply, if push comes to shove, and if we were get to some offer tendered in a HC purchase, and it was put to a SH vote, that it would likely pass because of the perception of continued shareholder fatigue, and as framergreg pointed out, "a bird in the hand... yada yada." In that case, I would rather see it (HC) sold separate from the IP. That was really my point, and I regret that it came out the way it did.
I have always maintained, and I clearly said in the discussion with others that I would rather hold it all together until CFBE, and not have to consider something under so much pressure, but again, somehow that gets overlooked.
Now being close to CFBE, the question is really, how close is close? How much wiggle room is there? How do you really know what all the contingencies are? And as the peanut gallery likes to point out, we have heard close to CFBE before.
When weighing a situation like this, I like to look at all the options, pros vs cons, counting the cost in each scenario, then decide. Some of the financial folks (and you) have opined that it may be a very manageable gap to CFBE from here, not requiring that much pain in the financing, so the very premature asset sale scenario question may really never materialize, and that is great.
I am very used to verbalizing my thoughts and doing so when I am not sure, but soliciting opinions, and hope I clarified things a little, and not added to the confusion.
That scenario would not suit me. We don't know what sort of value will eventually be placed on the IP. It could be very high, but that is pure speculation at this point.( In the conference call there was a reference to a write down of some non-core IP asset value). No one really knows at this point. Therefore, I am not ready to SETTLE for a $2.50 payout for Hipcricket. I believe given its recent impressive growth record, its near proximity to being cash flow positive, the dynamic mobile space in which it operates and the growing percentage of advertising dollars being spent there means that it is just at the beginning of an accelerating value that will be recognized in the market during this year and the following year. BE PATIENT. Don't let somebody else reap the benefits of this stock, because we got too impatient and panicked and, as a result, ended up with the crumbs while they calmly picked up the cake.
"...Don't let somebody else reap the benefits of this stock, because we got too impatient and panicked and, as a result, ended up with the crumbs while they calmly picked up the cake..."
I'm with you as well on that, but it may happen anyway if there is an offer in that ballpark tendered, it would likely be accepted. I have always said that the combination of both core and IP is the best scenario, but it may be a longer way there than most are willing to risk.
My post of that scenario was prompted by the suggestion that Roth Capital is an M&A specialist, and may have been hired to sell some or all of the assets. Consider why RH was made CEO, and that the shareholders want him to do what is currently in their best interest. Ask yourself if you were in his shoes, and that scenario presented itself, would you not think about pursuing it, versus going through more rounds of dilution at $0.60.
HC has only been with the company for a little over a year. I have been with this stock many years, and I can tell you, the stock performed much better before the HC acquisition, when it was strictly IP. I am not saying that it would go back to that, but the prospect of not having to go through the financing to support HC may be a big plus in the minds of many.
"...We don't know what sort of value will eventually be placed on the IP. It could be very high, but that is pure speculation at this point... No one really knows at this point..."
The fact that the IP can not be properly valued right now is part of why there is a disconnect, and confusion about stock value. There is much growth in the IP to come, but maybe on a different timescale than the core business. The core patents with some 600+ alleged infringers, and as many as 90 other peripheral patents in the mix, likely to be licensed by those doing business in the space in the next decade, and no capital financing burden, is an attractive prospect for a company and for investors. With the dividend, or a stock transaction deal, you can still be invested in the space, with a company not burdened by the stock so disconnected from fundamentals, even if it is with whatever company may be an acquirer of HC.
I think HC is first rate, but It may just be they need to grow inside the shelter of a larger company, so they can do what we all know they can do, and not have to deal with being a small fish in a pond of sharks.