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Augme Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • itsahorserace itsahorserace Feb 17, 2013 3:10 PM Flag

    Averaging Down To Zero

    It's been a little sad to see the board devolve to its current state. So much bickering and name calling.
    Nothing brings out the worst in people like losing money. I like to think I'm like many longs holding large positions bought at much higher levels -- trapped. Should have sold at $4.70. Didn't sell at $4.70. Now stock is $0.39 per share. Clearly I have made a big mistake by holding on forever. But the fact is, wherever you go, there you will find yourself. I have gone to $0.39. There I find myself. The question is what does one do?
    I, for one, am not going to sell here. Why? The only place this stock can go is up from here. Even a forced sale of HP would bring more than $0.39. And, it is true that you have not suffered a loss until you sell. Therefore, any future scenario, in my opinion, is better than where we are now. Ergo, it is wiser to hold than to sell.
    I am concerned that we are being overtaken in the space by big boys who are engaging in mobile marketing and advertising -- That we may be simply too small to compete in the space and undercapitalized.
    But we are growing. And if we can get to break even and continue to grow we could certainly appreciate in value as a going concern. This would be good for a long who is way down.
    Then for little humor, It occurred to me that what I needed to do was average down to zero. If I bought a million shares at 0.39 what would be my basis? Geez, if the stock went up to $0.50 I'd actually be making money again, like the old days. In fairness to some of the guys who have been ridiculed for loading up at these levels and working at "averaging down to zero," my hat is actually off to you. You've got big ones and if this stock does ever recover you will definitely be laughing all the way to the bank. But it's a big risk you have to take to do that. You have to keep breaking the old rule, "don't throw good money after bad." Either way, if I had the money to speculate with, I'd buy a ton now and hope the next two years are good for the company. I'm going to hang on and try to at least get to even and then see what the company's prospects are in my opinion. Don't need to sell for a year or two so why buy high and sell low.
    Then there is the IP. I still feel the IP is valuable. More so than many others here. If, ultimately, the goal is to sell the company, it must be worth more as package with all of the underlying IP. I would rather them hold the IP rather than diluting its value with an NPE, follow through on the suits currently being litigated, and see where that leads.
    Break even is the holy grail. This must happen at all costs and I do mean all costs, even giving up AOL. Confidence in the company will only be realized with actual positive cash flow.
    So, lets wait to get to break even, not sell the IP until we finish what we've got going on with it (then consider an NPE deal), get the share price back to $2.50 and sell that company for $5 - $8 bucks and all be happy two years from now.
    Remember, the secret to all great investing: Buy low, sell high. Longs have nothing to lose holding this stock, and everything to gain by having the patience of Job. Really hope Hussey can bring us back slowly. Then let the perky girl take over and run with it. My best.

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    • Aaaaannnnnddthereoff! itsahorse race, The big gamble was buying at the higher prices. Down here the risk is minimal. We also know more about the story at this time. The IP was clearly a drag on the cash flow. A few on these boards new it and spelled it out pretty clearly. They were either making a calculated guess or they new something.......everything we know now verifies it.
      The excitement of the patents blinded us. techsavy is right. The mention of emotions is very true. The emotion of losing money is clearly eating some people up. I am usually a very unemotional person when it comes to playing this game. The emotion of cashing in big on the patents got me. But I always kept my eye on their fantastic HC division. It gave me the confidence that in the long run , if the patents did not pan out we would be made whole plus by HC.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • i dont think anyone here is saying sell at this low point. unless u really need the money or have a margin call in another stock,etc. as for bashers , the money haas already been made by those who if they could short they have, even shorters kknow when the downside is not worth hanging around. the problem is when we all said dig deeper here that maybe all was not rosey and that you are being sold no wanted to be open minded. noone will even begin to admit that before HC they were being sold on the ip dream. oh well , i rang the bell and have been blasted ever since. didnt make a difference that i hold more shares of AUGT then i bet quite a few of the folks here. plus i admitted trading the stock and holding shares which didnt sit well with the i am goona hold forever crowd. jsut like when i told folks buy F at a buc and change , my reason quite frankly was simple, F was an icon like moms apple pie and they were not going bk . boy was i reamed for that one, some here are those very people who gave me #$%$ or when i told them buy realestate, they not making anymore . well i got the last laugh and in conclusion if u want the mobile experience to invest in, buy, i have said hc has the potential. u got really not much to lose as those that ran AUGT have moved on to greener pastures and new sheep. well they really are still here but u wont here from them till the hc comes of age . then they will be the i told you so gang even though they had no clue about the HC till a year or so ago.

    • Itsa....Play the game buddy. Its where we are. Investing is 10% DD and 90% knowing how to play the game. Holding or Averaging down on such fundamental are a sure bet that will win the game at the end against wave after wave of the bashers working on this stock for their clients or load up for themselves as cheaply as possible.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • "itsa" 8 thumbs up and no downers. Bashers must be taking the day off!
      I agree with about 95% of your post. Same boat.. Only difference is, I'm a sucker and still think our ultimate PPS will be higher. Much higher. These patents are so foundational... either they are worth a fortune, or "powerful forces" will not allow them to prevail. In which case, we still have Hipcricket. Which, in a sane world, should be worth $2 to $3 a share. I refuse to give up.. I just wish I had the wherewithal to average down.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • "I'm like many longs holding large positions bought at much higher levels -- trapped. Should have sold at $4.70. Didn't sell at $4.70. Now stock is $0.39 per share. Clearly I have made a big mistake by holding on forever."

      Yep, not only trapped and a big mistake, you appear to be screwed.

      "The only place this stock can go is up from here."

      Nope, you stand the chance of losing even more. The company continues to dilute and lose money. The company could be headed for a reverse split and bankruptcy.

    • itsahorserace...excellent post, thank you. jason

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