Have own Top Tankers for over a year now and and down somewhat a lot. Got the nice dividend payout a while back.
What are the possibilities that Top Tankers can go belly up?
"... we may very well see TOPT at $20/share, meaning that you will multiply a current investment BUY by about FIVE times your money. 500% gain. OK? :-)"
1. You already said this. You are now even more underwater than before (6 months ago).
2. Your math skills leave something to be desired, "ok," as 5x your money is a 400% gain, not a 500% gain. Did you complete the 6th grade?
Let me quote myself as well: "Howler - aka Goldilocks - and Railsnstocks - Choo Choo - have been saying for over a year how TOPT was a long-term buy, 5-bagger, at least over $20, etc. And what do they have to show for it? Nothing but a loss. They both claim to have sold at the top, $8.00, but we know what is true, as they were calling for 5-baggers and $20 all along. They wouldn't have sold. They're just embarrassed."
Let's give them a group hug.
I wouldn't worry about that, T. They have a lot of debt, but they've got real assets backing that debt, valued in abundance of the debt. They can, are willing, and do sell ships. They could, possibly, minimize their debt and stop the bleeding at the same time by selling some of their Suezmax ships. I hope they do this while the prices are still high, unless they correctly foresee the Suezmax rates improving, of course.
This has been suggested on the board, and if we've suggested it, I'm sure management has considered it. However, you can only sell if there is a suitable buyer. They aren't selling milk and eggs. There are a limited number of buyers for these vessels, and it's probably not a seller's market at the moment, despite the fact that ship resale values remain high on paper, the psychology may change faster than the paper reports reflect. I also wonder if their significant investment (at the cost of profits) in time and money at drydocks has quelled their passion for selling some of their Suezmax ships. I hope they don't foolishly hold a loser in hopes that the rates will rebound and they can get some of their expense back out of those costly drydocks. Waiting seems to be throwing good money after bad. But, what do I know. Hopefully Pisty knows the rate environment better than we do. Pisty jokes aside.
I would not presume to tell you what to do with your money, but I have been increasing my position, and am underwater at every move, yet I still sleep very well at night. I will be adding more sometime after January 1, too, if they still trade at a steep discount to what they seem to be worth.
I know a couple of long-time readers on this board that have made money over and over with this stock are wading in at these levels, too. There appears to be some real value here. I hope that consolation can allow you to have a Happy, Care-Free Thanksgiving.
In addition: Where we make the real money on these new ship purchases is when TOPT receives its first (of three) Spot Bulker. That will happen somewhere between January and March. As a matter of fact, we will receive 5 ships during that three month period of time. That will be a new ship (on average) every 18 days. A new PR every 18 days, unless they come in unison. All the better then, unless they all come on the same day at the end of March :) We've only got 45 days until January. Count the mile markers on the side of the road to pass the time.
As soon as the first Dry Bulk ship on SPOT comes, we'll probably turn a new direction (caveat: absent a general market meltdown).
We may turn a new direction before that - as someone with more money than you or I will not want to wait until the ships actually arrive to start accumulating shares at these levels. Right now, you see institutions, deep pocket individuals, etc. sitting on their hands. I am sure that some of the same guys that caused price/volume spikes in the past will cause price/volume spikes in the near future. They're sitting on their hands at the moment, so we have to, as well.
If you're in a margin call, none of this optimism applies. Sorry for your pain.
Howler if such was the reality, TOPT would be selling for $8.00, right now.
Have you ever personally been involved in the liquidation of a company? I have, and have seen how prices can get very depressed.
You set forth "They could sell off their present ships" who is they? In a liquidation, as your statement implies, they would be their creditors.