In about ten days the new shares will be trading.Lets hear your speculation.How many people will select stock vs cash? How much pressure will there be on what is now a strong ARCP shareprice?
ARCTIII shareholders electing the cash option will pay income tax at ordinary rates on the $2/sh gain. If they roll their investment into ARCP stock, they have the option to delay selling their investment for a full year to take advantage of the more favorable long term capital gain rates
Anyone with a half a brain would take the merger and the stock instead of straight cash. Right now the price is $14.54 and ARCT-3 shareholders get .95 of $1 or $13.84 per share or $13,840 for every $10,000 invested. Are you kidding. Merge and take the stock and sell it and reinvest in ARCT-4. Love it.
I don't know how much ARCP might fall next week (or even Friday for that matter) when people rush the door to move from ARCP to ARCT IV (as you want to do). I assume about a $1 of ARCP but am not sure. Your point is well taken. Some people did elect cash to have a bird in the hand and avoid the transfer hassle, etc to get their money.
I expect ARCP to sell off somewhat with people wanting to get out once they receive the ARCP shares for ARCT III. In light of the high levels ARCP has been setting lately, it would not be a surprise.