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Agrium Inc. Message Board

  • philthyesthoodlum philthyesthoodlum Feb 22, 2013 7:40 AM Flag

    Some idiot Analyst at Dalman Rose cuts AGU to sell

    After beating on both top numbers they have downgraded them. I can't believe it. What with these analysts can't they recognize a beat on earnings and eps. I'll buy more but I suspect they wanted to weaken them purposely. They probably have a large short position and want to kept this from hitting 115 today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • you should blame the company manipulating their numbers. they were down a lot in last Q (if you remember) and then went up a lot in this Q given relatively stable environment. I don't think any investor would like this kind business.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to farhillgreen
      • You may be right but I have to believe that a good amount of the downward drift of the stock has to do with a lot of stops being taken out. Unfortunately, the downgrade became an invitation to short the stock so a combination of those listening to DR coupled with the influx of an unspecified number of short sellers/day traders has sent the stock down, thereby taking out stops causing yet more selling. If I am right, the stock should recover about half or more of its losses for the day before the day is out. We shall see. In the meantime, AGU announced another $.50 dividend payable in mid-April. The stock is now paying 2% annually but you would never know it looking at Yahoo Finance. The reason is they get their information from Morningstar which never updated their information. I actually contacted Morningstar and they initially told me I didn't know what I was talking about. So I sent them a link which indicated that AGU doubled their dividend payout as of their December 12th announcement. Hard to argue with that. But I notice that Yahoo Finance has not changed the yield on the stock which is still listed as .9%. So much for my good deed.

    • you should blame the company manipulating their numbers. they were down a lot in last Q (if you remember) and then went up a lot in this Q given relatively stable environment. I don't think any investor would like this kind business.

    • Not quite. NPK prices are tanking because India and China are in belt tightening mode . In the case of India they are reverting to organic use animal/human waste (1 bn Cattle +1.3 Bn people). It involves massive amounts of human labor & it is very intensive but they save on NPK. I beieve till Gold goes up fertiliser prices will decline. There is no logic but there is some correlation ..

    • Dahlman Rose is being bought out because they put out stupid recommendations like this, lol. In stock after stock, this firm always seems to come out of left field with strange points of view.
      I'm in CF, which they also downgraded despite projections of a record corn crop planting (perhaps even 100MM acres), continued low nat gas prices (and in the longer term when California shale production starts up gas will go even lower), inelastic fertilizer prices, etc.

    • With AGU now down over 6% in the first half hour of trading, we see just how meaningless a good quarterly report can be in the short term. Investing in the AG sector is not for the faint of heart. Today will be a day of pain.

    • I think AGU made a mistake by not increasing the yield by another 50%. That would have really exposed DR for the worthless outfit they are. By the way, Credit Suisse has an 'outperform' rating on AGU with a target price of $124. So not everybody is buying into DR's negativity.

    • not only agu but cf, pot and mos. look at dahlman's track record-not very good. this is the 5th or 6th time he has changed his rating on Cf since May 2012.

    • so? If you think that a AGU selloff today is because of a 2 bit outfit like Dalman Rose then you have a lot to learn.

 
AGU
115.53+1.14(+1.00%)Feb 27 4:02 PMEST

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