The management of AGU has essentially told JANA to 'get lost.' Given that reception to their recommendations, let us assume that JANA fails to secure seats for any of its proposed directors to the AGU board. Will JANA just say, 'Oh well, we tried and failed so now we will just sit with our shares which are likely to go nowhere near where we thought they ought to go.' I doubt it. They are going to get out and selling a billion worth of AGU stock is unlikely to enhance shareholder value while all that selling is going on. Of course, JANA could just sit tight and hope for the best. You decide whether you think hedge funds like JANA are likely to just go with the flow.
I would expect to see the shares start to head back towards its all time high. The reason is that even though the JANA backed directors would constitute only a minority on the Board, their professional backgrounds would undoubtedly have an influence on Board policy and directives going forward. Indeed, even without such representation, it is clear that a number of initiatives and recommendations made by JANA have already been taken up by AGU. JANA is all about maximizing shareholder value. AGU's claim that that is what the current board is all about has a hollow ring to it which is why ISS, the institutional advisory group with more AGU shareholder subscribers than any other advisor, has urged a vote for the JANA slate. As long as JANA remains in the picture, my guess is that we can expect to see more yield increases and perhaps share buybacks coming our way. I certainly believe that given AGU's earning potential, the stock should not be selling at a PE ratio of 9 when its peers are at a much higher level. One way or another, bringing the JANA slate onto the board should boost AGU's share price and overall be a force for the better. Anyway, that is what I think and have voted my shares accordingly.
Now not only do we have the democrats and republicans going to their respective corners we have Agrium's Board and JANA doing the same thing. Why not compromise here ? Why this fight to the death ?
Let Jana dump their shares are they are going to lose period. I support the management team 100%. We'd be better off if Jana moved on to some other stock and then that would shut the fat mouth of the idiot abbaman. He's a schmuck who is running the banner for Jana. What a sorry #$%$
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You may ultimately be correct that if JANA loses the proxy, they will sell out. But consider this alternative view. Depending on how close the vote is, they may not only remain as shareholders in order to continue to hector management in the direction they think best but they and their cohorts might increase their percentage interest so that at the next vote for directors [which is staggered in terms of timing], they will be in a position to bang on the door again. And to the extent that AGU is underperforming either in terms of the markets, its peers or analyst expectations, management may not win the next time around.
My guess is that the uncertainty regarding the outcome is not helping the stock any. For those with very short time horizons, I can imagine that the past several weeks have not been pleasant or profitable.
I must say though, after looking at their new presentation, I agree with the removals LOL. Especially the part with the fat cat directors who sit on the board for years on end, doesnt buy any shares and only dumps them.
However maybe they dont need to break up the company as JANA suggested. Maybe spin retail off, but have AGU as the 100% shareholder, or 80% shareholder with the 20% being IPOed out to the public.
Jana will lose the board fight in April and then they'll go away and try again next year to get their guys on the board. Buncn of sssholes who think they have the only way to create shareholder value. Typical NY ssssholes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy