This is a good post. Does anyone know why the reduced it from $1.20 to $.85 between Dec. 2008 to March 2009, and then raised it from $.85 to $1.50? I just don't know the history.
I think everyone has offered good opinions, and it is clear it could be $1.40 or $1.50, but will they be impacted like NLY and lower the diviend. Here is the history. Obviously, it would be fantastic if they paid out $1.50, but has there been any positive or negative events impacting cash flow.
Mar 29, 2010 $ 1.40 Dividend
Dec 29, 2009 $ 1.40 Dividend
Sep 30, 2009 $ 1.40 Dividend
Jun 30, 2009 $ 1.50 Dividend
Mar 31, 2009 $ 0.85 Dividend
Dec 29, 2008 $ 1.20 Dividend
Sep 25, 2008 $ 1.00 Dividend
could be as high as $1.80-$2.00
compare last 4 quarters earnings vs dividend history with a similar REIT - HTS
Earnings Dividend difference
AGNC $2.02 $1.50 .52
1.82 1.40 .42
1.79 1.40 .39
2.13 1.40 .63
Undistributed earnings $1.96
HTS $1.20 $1.10 .10
1.26 1.15 .11
1.28 1.20 .08
1.21 1.20 .01
Undistributed earnings $ .30
To maintain their REIT status they have to pay out 90% of their taxable income within 1 year. They have been leveraging excess earnings, which is good for us because it helps them make more money, but they are going to have to increase the dividends soon.
I'm going with $1.40 here also.
In the earning report concalls that I have read they have stressed a conservative process to maintain the dividend where its at for as long as possible vs raising it for all they can then having it fall back.
That makes for a choppy stock.
AGNC price has held up remarkably compared to others in their class. There is no need for them to rock the boat.
They said in the ER it would be $1.40. But they continue to make a lot more than they pay. At some point they will raise it or have a special dividend when the calendar forces them. Actually holding back a little so they can keep it steady through shortfalls is a good strategy.
agreed. Dividend will be paid out around 20 percent (if they can).
The carry over from Last year will be paid out in the first quarter clearing that little bookkeeping tax mess.
But i believe that hook will always exist.
Call it leveraged to make more money or just greed - manangements fees get paid for total dollar amount under managment.
because they get paid for total dollars I am still not sure that they will not do another secondary.
I mean they already have everything lined up (or are getting everything lined up to do a secondary at ACAS under NAV)