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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ben9471 ben9471 Sep 21, 2010 9:57 AM Flag

    Maybe it recovers maybe not

    Finally some relief. This rally in AGNC was driving me crazy. You guys need to sell who are holding it for a higher price, although it will probably do a bit better later today. I wouldnt be expecting over $30, but we have a way to yet. It could still close over $30, but I am in the puts now.

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    • I'm out at 29.67 from my 27.07 buy in. They guys who got out yesterday did better, but I have nothing to complain about.

      It probably will go higher after the Fed announces, but I'm not willing to bank on it.

      Good luck to all who are still holding. See you next quarter.

    • Ben..appreciate the urging to sell..did so at $30.01 yesterday at 3:55 PM...plan to buy back after a healthy did post div.

      • 1 Reply to johnoroak
      • Weak hands fold..this is ying/yang of the market..what stock typically continues upward more than 7 days without retreating, profits taken, shorts exhausted?

        Look @ the history of this stock,it has NEVER had more than a seven day run pre- EX..(last time Dec '09). Why would it now? We'll be close to 30-31 by the end of Thursday is my bet ...but hey, it's the market and the BIG question is... who really knows?

    • Ben,

      I'm a new one trying to investing REIT which seems more predictable than other kinds of stocks. I need you to help me to understand the following information. The news said, I quote, "The dividend is payable on October 27, 2010 to common shareholders of record as of September 28, 2010, with an ex-dividend date of September 24, 2010." does this mean I can sell the stock on September 24 after hour, or I have to hold to September 28 after hour to lock up the dividend. thank.

    • Someone the other day was cricising me for saying that AGNC would be impacted by the dividend annoucments of HTS, NLY, ANH, etc. I think HTS has a lot do do with the price drop this morning. IF NLY comes out with a dividend drop, watch out. Sorry for responding to my own post.

      • 3 Replies to ben9471
      • looking good Ben! Either you bought 20 more or somebody joined you on those dec 32.50's good luck my friend.

      • Ben - I believe you were refering to my comments about the impact that announcements from the other REITS would have on AGNC.

        In case there is any misunderstanding, let me be clear that even if I disagree with some of your comments, I do appreciate your posts. Quite a few interesting discussions have been spurred by them. That helps everyone who reads this board.

        The essence of my comment about dividend announcements from other majors REITS was that if they cut, while AGNC holds, it only makes AGNC a better buy. If AGNC is paying $5.60 a year, and HTS is only paying $4.40 a year ($1.10 x 4), which would you rather own?

        Does it really make sense for AGNC to take a hit because another REIT cuts their dividend or issues a secondary?

        It makes no sense, but nevertheless, I agree the HTS secondary is probably why AGNC is off today.

        I ended up selling at $30.08 this morning. Do I think we will be higher tomorrow or Thursday? Probably.

        As for buying puts, I might go for it if the stock recovers and gets close to 31. I am skeptical that the post-div drop will go as far as some others think.

        I would love it if we drop anywhere under 26. Then it is time to load up. However, I think the new bottom may be closer to 27.

        Time will tell. My guess is we will know by the end of the month. Good luck to all.

      • I think that The HTS drop is more due to their new share offering price than the dividend announcement. It's an overreaction, I think, that you see in a lot of investors when a mortgage REIT has an offering. IVR announced a dividend increase today.

 
AGNC
23.77+0.190(+0.81%)10:07 AMEDT

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