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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • rra4534 rra4534 Sep 24, 2010 5:18 PM Flag

    Price of AGNC after EX

    Can anyone explain the price of AGNC that was posted today. On Thursday closed at $29.27.
    Today was listed in the low $28 range but showed a + all day.
    Closed at $28.19 + .32.
    That doesn't add up!
    Oct 30 Put closed on Thursday at $2.50
    Closed today at $2.10
    Any suggestions?

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    • I did a lot of trading, including intra-day trading with a team and running a free advisory newsletter for my friends and family. But stopped doing so some 6 years ago because I got too old for the stress and do not need the money anyway. I swing trade now and do so for two reasons:

      a) it is something to do as a mental exercise
      b) the time of "buy and hold" is over and I am something of control (of my destiny) freak

      Intra-day trading for individual is over as well because of the huge volume of automated computer trading engines. They scalp the stocks (trade within few cents) and this took out enough of predictability to turn the win/loss percentage to negative. There is team in Nashville dooing it and they asked me to join. It consists of mathematicians, certified brokers etc. and I was to be statistician and technical analyst. But I turned it down; I am 68 years old - ("stary" means old in English. And "kozel" = goat, heehee) and the reasons are spelled-up above.

    • It's all good Stary..Good investing to you!

    • hello reits

      I was tired and got kinda abrupt. I should say that in my analysis I was not interested in the run-up, but rather about the reaction at the ex-day, because it could help to project price pattern for Monday and so on. I usually do not write about my thinking, but AGNC regarding ex-div. is quite interesting and having the stuff in my word processor (I usually just hand-write it in my trading notebook only) to mail to a friend, I pasted an abbreviated copy to this Board.

    • at IB there is no monthly fee if you spend $30.00 on commissions per month.

    • Hi Stary,

      Didn't mean to offend you..just responding to your post when you stated that,

      "3) RSI (Relative Strength) closed yesterday above 60; different from HISTORICAL closing under 60"

      Please re-read my post

    • #1 -- I do not bother to look at last year's data - the IPO is not that old and pre-2010 data is not pertinent

      #2 -- I do not care about your numbers because yoe selected ones that meet your misinformation goals. Pertinent is March 29 and June 29; your dates are not pertinent (I repeat the word "pertinent" because obviously your comment is not pertinent either).

      Are you uneducated re trading or simply some fake?

    • At IB 200 shares cost $1 to trade. (Plus $10 per month for minimum service.)

    • Don't ask me to decide for you...Even with all the historical facts I've still been schooled by the market( and those that still don't know which day they have to hold their stock through to get the dividend) A lot of folks are on the long side as yourself.

      I am just a probability guy and I'm trying to live by that model and sharing statistics and patterns.

      Probability says down by Tuesday...the market will decide if it will abide by the same.

      BTW..we both win(me with my short calls) if Monday or Tuesday we hit 26.50, and you (with your shares) if it goes up from there (which it normally does).

      Good luck to both of us!

    • So you think its worth using the one free ride I get at Scottrade to get out of it while its still up(assuming it opens in the black on Monday anyway)

    • I agree that's its necessary to have an exit and entrance strategy...very difficult..emotionally to trade without this.

      Having said that you have to TRY(hard to do) to be objective about your plan, and to not create new(false) facts to justify or support your hopes.

      RSI has been over 60 on every one of the last 5 EX date run-ups:

      Here is the raw data for RSI:

      June 26, 2009 69.92
      Sept 25, 2009 79.00
      Dec 28, 2009 72.09
      Mar 23, 2010 63.21
      June 25, 2010 71.63
      Sept 20, 2010 76.41

      These were the high points which occurred within a few days B4 EACH EX..only to decline EVERY time post now Sept 24th RSI 46.87.

      Good luck!

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