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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Dec 3, 2010 6:48 PM Flag

    If you guys are not trading TNA you are missing easy $$$

    Ryan,

    For shorting: Look at the historicals of TNA when the PPS reaches 80%-90% (I like 85%)overbought and the SMA is moving down AND there is a crossover of %K over %D on Stochastics. Set your slow Stochastics to a 14 minute Period and Smooth it to 7 minutes. Set Fast @ %K(14), %D(14/18)

    Shorting: You are IN @ the crossover of BOTH slow and fast have to wait for slow). You are OUT @ reverse crossover.

    Reverse the above for going long. You are doing this on live streaming minute chart. Don't need IWM.

    Still experimenting ...your thoughts....

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    • Hey Doc.,

      Thanks for sharing your TNA strategy with the board. I'm going to take a look and see if I like the feel of it. What has been your success rate paper trading? Enough to make you ready to jump in? Ben alluded to a bull market in small-cap, a sentiment echoed by a number of newsletters. If I remember correctly, RT only likes to go long. Have you had success both long and short?

      On another note, sorry for the ponderous missive (cerebral cortex malfunction) I wrote querying your strategy for the AGNCJAN30's. I forgot that you hold your options as short a duration as possible. I ran a daily closing price comparison between August 31 and September 23, for the closing prices of AGNC and AGNCOCT28's (what I consider be the equivalent proxy for AGNCJAN30's, due to relative price) using THINKBACK. In essence, looking back at the performance of the proxy for the JAN30's and its correlated price sensitivity. Wow! I'm backing the truck up on Monday. It still looks available in the .45 range, which is a bargain.

      Cheers

      • 1 Reply to jimthweatt2001
      • Hi Jim!

        I am paranoid about sure things after getting hosed on EVEP, LINE, and ETP last month. I agree with Ben in that I will stay right now with calls. I will not short TNA.
        I need to refine the TNA strategy. 75 % accuracy. In for only minutes. Taking 10 cents here 20 cents there and occasionally the 75 cent winners..If it was easy...
        I purchased the Jan 30's. Keep in mind the PPS has to reach 30.25 by ED to break even. Theta should be about .15 by then. So the risk is will it grow by .75 in three more weeks? Historically, yes! I would hope for a minimum of 30 and a maximum of 32. So the 30's look like the best statistical bang for the buck. You risk less dollars if the unforeseen event occurs and we end up at 27. Then the deep ITM get hosed , together with us. The difference is that the Jan 26' ers are out 2.40/contract and we're out .40. It's all a crap shoot, we just all try to minimize the pain and maximize the gain ;-)

        Good luck my friend....

    • Ill have to check it out. It sounds good. Im assuming you just use tight stops? I get nervous with large positions in tripple leverage without being locked in with options.

 
AGNC
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