I see tons of comments saying "look at the history"! No #$@%! Look at every quarter in 2009 vs. 2010 Each quarter this year they have come out earlier than the year before. Why would it be advantageous to wait until the week of christmas? Why would they need more time to declare the div amount? I dont care what any of you say its not a good move to leave it down to the wire. Its suspect to me. I wish you all the best of luck but im going long cheap calls and shorting the shares.
ahh... gogomets uh hum....
I did. I told you in the post i shorted shares AH and as for the short before the offering look up my posts. I did post that trade and prices too. Why do people feel the need to attack others?
There is nothing extraordinary about the timing of AGNC's dividend declaration. The last 4 dividend declarations have occurred on average, 8 trading days prior to X-d. I would guess X-d. on 12/29. Back out 8 trading days, and you get Thursday, 12/16 for the declaration. Last year they declared on 12/18, with an X-d. of 12/29. If they mimic last Dec., they will declare on Monday, 12/20. Thus, declaring between 12/16 and 12/20 should be expected, and the lack of a declaration to-date is a non-issue, unless you are holding OTM DEC options. If you are holding stock, no problem (just have an exit strategy if earnings disappoint.)
I hope that this helps.
As someone else mentioned, seeing whether the overalottment sells so they know the share count is a good reason. I imagine the process goes something like management says to the board "we want to distribute x amount in dividend this quarter. setting the dividend at y/share will do that, which would leave us z amount of undistributed..." All that can happen without estimates if they wait a few days.
Or perhaps the underwriters want to get their shares sold and got a borderline illegal bullish wink and nod about the probable amount from AGNC and are using that insider knowledge to market the shares with confidence. In that case inside 411 is a form of "discount to underwriters" in the form of informational currency, which is the that Wall Street values the most. That kind of insider trading happens all the time, usually to shareholders detriment, but it in this case it would be shareholder neutral unless they pushed the boundaries too far and did more than wink and nod in which case it would be risking a bearish scandalous SEC investigation.
Wow! I've been on the road all day and come back to bedtime reading. Is this the busiest message board or just the best out there. Ryan, your local shrink Doc Reits TOTALLY knows your pain and why you wrote the opening post.
Dec options expire folks in two days!!! When you are sitting on a gazillion Dec30 calls you're P.O.'d when the PPS fades away toward expiration! You can't expect a trader to chill or whatever when time is limited. I wanted 30+ for Ryan by Friday so he could buy me a birthday present next week. Now I 'll have to wait till next year. Knowing Ryan he'll make it up. I'd quit trading If I could just get his broker's commission for last year's trades. Heck I could retire!
If it makes you feel better Ryan my day started with a power failure when I went to buy IVR calls. A blown out tire on my way to work and a bunch of PO'd patients in my waiting room for my being late. It got worse from there.
I'm going home...still on the road.....
Thanks Arsh your post made me feel much better and yes I think the game has changed too. I really like buying OTM calls because they are so cheap and then shorting. These reits have such cheap calls vs. puts so it allows you to straddle at rock bottom prices. If you catch an offering whoa! I think that might be how my strategy changes in 2011. Anyway, ya best of luck my friend. I hope agnc hits it out of the park!
" Why would it be advantageous to wait until the week of christmas? Why would they need more time to declare the div amount? I dont care what any of you say its not a good move to leave it down to the wire. Its suspect to me. I wish you all the best of luck but im going long cheap calls and shorting the shares."
Although you don't care what I have to say....
If a company had left over gains that they would have to pass on to a dividend before the end of the year which would raise the dividend they probably wouldnt want to announce early for fear of people swooping in to dividend capture which already happens a lot with this stock.
Note I am not making a prediction but am offering one possible reason on why it could be non-suspect.
I have a gut feeling and common sense, after studying everything about the stock; AGNC is going to $30 PPS next two weeks, then down to $28 first few weeks in January 2011, and in 2011 up to $35-36 by the March dividend. Look for the dividend to drop to about $4.00 in 2012. I have had four good dividends and there should be four more. 3000 shares times $1.00 is still a good dividend. So much for my speculation. Take it for what it is worth. Good luck investing your hard earned money.
If its such a crazy post why cant anybody give reasons why they might wait to declare? There may be some good reasons. I may be way off. I just think its suspicious. Other people took profits and got out why am I so crazy?
rt, don't forget ryan thought the divi would be on tuesday. Thursday after hours will be 1.40. Don't forget, agnc always surprises. During the earnings, every reit sucked, but agnc had an outstanding one. Now everyone else lowers their divi, and agnc will...?
Yes Im chaning my trade a little. I still own tons of calls but the upside is limited. agnc is not blasting to 35 or even 32 for that matter so I could lose 1-2k going short 1,000 shares but having more calls would more than offset the loss from short shares. Now if they lower for some reason it could get wacked and my short shares pay for my bet on the calls. Hell yes its reason enough to change direction or atleast hedge.