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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ben9471 ben9471 Feb 15, 2011 4:11 PM Flag

    Brilliant Day - $29+/- good price

    Today, was a very nice day, but what I wanted to convey to you guys who seemed to express concern there is something sinister going on, the options market is suggesting not with a put/call ratio of .60 and the sort interest decreased by 33% to 2,166,200 shares. Not only it is a low percentage of the float, but the coverage ratio on short shares is .6. Now, there could be something sinister and this stats have failed me before, but this was just a great day to buy some shares at a good price. I got shares and calls at an excellent price. If they annouce a secondary, it won't be much under $28.25 is even that. So, I will just buy more. We should thank our friends at NLY. Now, they have a problem. It will take weaks for the shares to settle down and find a nice home. I never thought I would see my opportunity so early in February.

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    • Sounds like you bought some June 27's. If so, welcome aboard.

      I knew I should have sold when we were talking about it the other day, and almost got out yesterday but got greedy on my ask.

      I'm still confident this trade will work out, even if I did get knocked all the way back down to break even today.

      If it drops again tomorrow, I may look to average down (for the second time). But I've already allowed the position to get a bit larger than I originally intended, so we'll see. The one thing I won't do (barring a major change to the company/economy) is exit for a loss if it keeps falling. June is a long way off...

    • so ben - early in the day you said you be a buyer at $28.50; later you say you might be in at $28.75; then you express glee at being able to purchase at $29 and calls at $29.15. lots of different emotions from you over the course of a trading day. care to explain?

      • 2 Replies to stockmeister3
      • If you must know my psychology, I am certainly not perfect in what I do or what I say. I was trading all day and doing very well, and when I saw the chart sliding to its lowest point of the day, I decided to push my limit. I will admit that I was not sticking to my trading plan, but in the end, after checking the other data sources that I use and after making money on shorting CTL, I decided to go for it. So, I didn't get my $28.50 - $28.75. I was looking for it. Had I had the time, I might have checked with you first. I might get a better price tomorrow and average down.

        Another deciding point was the entry point on the options that I wanted. He was asking $2.25 and got them for $2.15. An intrinsic of $29.15 is pretty good in my book for a stock that will surely be at $30.00 by ex-dividend. I am quite happy to average down.

        I guess I could have qualifed my ideas by saying that subject to the market and my gut instincts, but I presume the reader would understand that. I was clearly looking to buy, and may I just say that after seeing the short interest declining and the put/call ratio being bullish, I feel like I am in a good position. But it is also due to the fact that I have been getting into cash all week and had earlier made money on AGNC calls when it was trading at $29.56. I have just had a good week trading and feel very fortunate to have gotten the price I received.

        Now, would you explain to me why it is incumbent on you to call me out. Perhaps, you aren't happy with your decisions.

      • Listen he was waiting for the end of the day, and it did not go down all the way to 28.50, so he was happy it was at least under 29, which is a great thing considering nothing happened to agnc per ce

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