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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • jdg8002 jdg8002 Feb 15, 2011 10:52 PM Flag

    Brilliant Day - $29+/- good price

    Sounds like you bought some June 27's. If so, welcome aboard.

    I knew I should have sold when we were talking about it the other day, and almost got out yesterday but got greedy on my ask.

    I'm still confident this trade will work out, even if I did get knocked all the way back down to break even today.

    If it drops again tomorrow, I may look to average down (for the second time). But I've already allowed the position to get a bit larger than I originally intended, so we'll see. The one thing I won't do (barring a major change to the company/economy) is exit for a loss if it keeps falling. June is a long way off...

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    • Hi,

      Nice trade jdg and Ben, AGNC at (MA50 + $2)=31.14 on this divvy run up gives you almost intrinsic 2x baggers. AGNC has historically traded around $2 above MA50 on divvy run ups and unless they announce a secondary during the run up there's no reason it can't trade above $31 this March. You can certainly count on at least $30, still quite profitable.

      Now that I am back from the cold weather (flew home from Kauai this morning) I really hope AGNC sells off this week while I'm present to trade it.

      • 2 Replies to taymere_lane
      • It's great to here from Taymere, Jed, Jim, and the gang. Patience is the word, and I love it when Taymere says 2x bagger, but I suffer from premature redemption of gains and risk avoidance.

        My only comment is that is a bit early for me for the final run to ex-dividend, but then again it is also the 16th. My experience has been if you get in around the 20th or so, that seems to be better, so in that regard, the 16th seems about right with sector driven event and the market was down significantly. It was well tested.

        If I can get another sell-off today and more $27's at $2.00 - $2.15, now that would be something. I am tired of trading any of the other MREITs, as I only seem to make money on AGNC calls. AGNC has an increasing spread and the numbers are good.

        So, I will be looking to double or triple down. IF I can get down to $28.50 with no other company events or news, That would be fantastic. But I don't think we will see it. Last quarter the triggers was the sell of the ACAS shares and then I got lucky and got out before the secondary.

        I would like your opinions about Delta. I have bought the $27's, but I did look back the deltas of 1 for 26's, 25's, etc. I settled on the delta of .93 on the 27's.

        Does anyone have any more scientific method for determining the performance of the instruments and determining the trade-off between capital and performance.

        It doesn't help that I always buy long, but I hate feeling pressured.

        Last quarter for example, I lost money on 30's, because they just didn't get where I wanted them to despite the fact the underlying was climbing up a bit.

      • Hey Taymere,

        Spending some option profits in Hawaii must have been fun. Sounds like you and the Mrs. had a great time. My wife and I try to get over to Kauai every year or two. Hanalei is one of our favorite places. My guess is that you stayed somewhere in Poipu (killer beaches). Now that you're back, let's make some more money on AGNC. BTW, TWO is the gift that keeps on giving. Thanks again for that tip.

        Cheers

    • Patience.

 
AGNC
19.36-0.19(-0.97%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT