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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • taymere_lane taymere_lane Jun 22, 2011 1:54 PM Flag

    Why all the amazement?

    Hi Doc, the last divvy run up may have fizzled but MA50 is still above MA200, both are still rising and they've been uncrossed for a year now. To analyze price history for the 9 month period since last Sept that you propose that we're locked in a range for, I did a one year linear regression of closing prices for the past 9 months. The past 9 months price performance doesn't support BATESAT. The end points of the regression line differ by $1.69 and if over the next 9 months we trade exactly the same way we won't be range locked at all, you can project that line right out to $31.60 nine months from now. Given that AGNC typically trades above the regression line by more than the dividend amount on the highs of divvy run ups AGNC trading at $33 over the next 9 months is entirely within reach based on the last 9 months price performance. You won't lose any money BATESATing but you will miss out on a truly juicy gain.
    BATESATT say I BATESATT.

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    • que? I failed my beginner's acronyms class in college.

    • Doc, spend $40 on a ticket http://www.alaskaair.com/content/deals/flights/fares-to-go.aspx?regn=PacNW&&wc_mid=1506%3A10908%3AWHA_AH_20110622_FTG_PacNW&wc_rid=1-3UDP7WZ&wc_lid=SaveNow_Btn||20110621_SALE_FTG|| to fly on out here and I'll explain BATESATT to you in person in front of the computer, your gains from a BATESATT conversion experience will buy you a 1st class ticket with a limo ride to the airport on the way home :)

      • 1 Reply to taymere_lane
      • Hi Taymere,

        I really do appreciate all of the IRR you,Quad, Terr. dd and Jim do but the harsh reality is that I was and (IMO) continue to be correct.

        If I am not mistaken every one of you were peddling the BV to PPS stuff about how we had to have at least 31.15+ B4 an spo. Does anyone remember? I mean that IRR stuff was tedious ;-).

        Had me scratching my head and looking into it for a few moments, but the harsh reality ,as I outlined in earlier posts on this thread, is that management does something very simple. THEY KEEP US RANGE BOUND!!!!!!

        H;;L Yes, I would agree and love to see the upward mobility of the PPS AND it would normally follow that progression. The reality is that management is going to continue this pattern and defeat the normal statistical progression.

        Its what JackHiller said...you can't always use, with certain confidence, historical static data to predict non-static future events.

        The flies in the normal linear progression machine are these spo's.

        I contend that my Sept time frame is accurate. Since Sept 1 we've seen 7 days in the high 27's only. From Oct 1 one day only. All others have been 28.00 or higher and only 32 days have hit 30+ with most of those( 26 days out of that 32) being under 30.50.

        I would say that follows BATESAT pretty well!!

        Anyways...now the children are crying about the sustainability of AGNC going forward. Did you see Jerry Stanerwick(aka Orlinda_fell) going back to true form howling at the moon with all the others....makes one kind of sick, if it wasn't so darned funny.....they must have bought the EX.

 
AGNC
22.74+0.05(+0.22%)Oct 31 4:00 PMEDT

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