AGNC is so consistent and yet we always here,"Amazing, I can't believe how well or how poorly the stock is doing. Is it going to go higher? Should I wait to buy? Please hold my hand and tell me what to do?"
My teenager can make her own decisions better than a lot of folks here. Find a stock that performs more consistent than this one. Maybe TWO.
Again, when the PPS approaches 28, BUY...as it approaches 30, SELL. It is not rocket science.BATESAT. No it does not have to recover for a secondary. No it did not and will not in the foreseeable future hit 31 or 32. It is stuck in a temporary trading range that has been with us since last September.
We should see an spo within this next week. If the shares trade down the next few days in the 28.25 range , BUY. I think the spo will be priced at guess what? "28". Copy and paste this post to your computer and when the spo shows up...look up at the note that Dad told you to copy and......."BUY"!!
hi Chas_stid, no it's not a linear regression it's an acronyn. Linear regressions and analysis of fundamentals produce BATESATT not BATESAT. Histograms tend to produce BATESAT thinking, but I think I got doc converted over to BATESATT now. He's seen the light about how 2/3 penny a day average share price gains and 4/5 of a penny average daily BV gains add up over time.
Hi Doc, the last divvy run up may have fizzled but MA50 is still above MA200, both are still rising and they've been uncrossed for a year now. To analyze price history for the 9 month period since last Sept that you propose that we're locked in a range for, I did a one year linear regression of closing prices for the past 9 months. The past 9 months price performance doesn't support BATESAT. The end points of the regression line differ by $1.69 and if over the next 9 months we trade exactly the same way we won't be range locked at all, you can project that line right out to $31.60 nine months from now. Given that AGNC typically trades above the regression line by more than the dividend amount on the highs of divvy run ups AGNC trading at $33 over the next 9 months is entirely within reach based on the last 9 months price performance. You won't lose any money BATESATing but you will miss out on a truly juicy gain.
BATESATT say I BATESATT.
Doc, spend $40 on a ticket http://www.alaskaair.com/content/deals/flights/fares-to-go.aspx?regn=PacNW&&wc_mid=1506%3A10908%3AWHA_AH_20110622_FTG_PacNW&wc_rid=1-3UDP7WZ&wc_lid=SaveNow_Btn||20110621_SALE_FTG|| to fly on out here and I'll explain BATESATT to you in person in front of the computer, your gains from a BATESATT conversion experience will buy you a 1st class ticket with a limo ride to the airport on the way home :)
I think its put time, Sept. 31's are looking good. Do I have the guts? How many to buy?
=31 - 2.50 (est.) = $28.50 to BE. Do we see $28.00. $1.00 reduction from $29.00 x about .80% for theta earns $.80 per call.
Good post. The only area I might question is the pricing of the SPO at 28. Historically, AGNC's SPOs on average have given subscribers about a 5% discount to the last closing price. Using this discount, the pps would need to be 29.47 to result in a price of 28. Taking it a step further, the additional discount to the underwriters is about 5%, the result of which is the amount that goes to BV/share. Reverse engineering the pricing using the total 10% discount, the BE price for an accretive SPO equals about 28.84 (28.84 x .90=25.96, the current BV/share). This 10% is a placeholder as the numbers can be variable. It is possible that AGNC might be able to reduce some of the discount, thus changing the pricing above, but we can only operate with the current fact set. E.G., were AGNC to close at its current price of 28.74, and announce an SPO AH, it would require a subscriber discount of 2.57% to result in an SPO priced at 28. That discount seems unrealistic/low at this time, as it is the main "incentive" for subscriber purchase. If an SPO happens soon, I would expect pricing somewhere around 27.50. We'll soon find out.
SPO offer price at $28, when the open market trades (near) there? I think not. Previous SPO's have been offered at a discount (to current trading price) of 8%-10% (which is what it takes to sell out all of the 35M shares it offers).
Unless the market price rises well above $29 before the SPO, you'll see an off price in the $27 range, else no SPO for a while.