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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ben9471 ben9471 Jun 23, 2011 12:25 PM Flag


    Have to wonder about the 7:00 p.m. affect, the number of shares left to trade and whether they can be absorbed at this price in overall down market.

    We have roughly 11,000,000 shares left to go, including the overallotment.

    The price is still holding at $28.62+/0. I am starting to feel like a short play is coming, but I have been so wrong with AGNC in the past on this I am not taking a position yet. If we get near $28.80, another round of puts is worth a try.

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    • Ben:

      How do you know that there are only 11,000,000 shares of the SPO left after the allotment. I don't challenge you -- but where did you look to find that information?

      I was online at the opening, and got some September 29 calls at $.70, which is looking really good. I generally increase my holdings after a SPO, but the price has come back too quickly. Unless it drops to $28.15 or so, I'll probably sit this one out.

      • 1 Reply to solomon472002
      • Basically 43M shares less 33M shares traded at this point. That leaves 10M, but there is an overallotment. The underwriters are not going to take much risk here, so you can expect them to be selling today and tomorrow. Doesn't matter how many exactly, but what does matter is the principal of shares not being absorbed. It might end up moving up by the end of the day. Also, around 2:00 the market can sell off, not always, but sometimes true. Lot of near term issue out there for the market, so nothing wrong with being short. I just happen to think the market may not digest these. The underwriters will want to make their dime and move on. Anyway, quite happy to be wrong, but I don't want to play.

    • Not sure if this will help, but I overwhelmingly feel a short play being put together.

      These mREITs always seem to perform better on down market days, so I can't put much merit of being surprised at the trading on a market slam day.

      People probably hate me today being so contrarian. :)

      • 1 Reply to eagledragon1
      • Its funny that way. I see it as just riding the rollar coaster in anyway that is intutively correct and making money doing it. It is contrarian to go short or think about going short, but is simply a matter of looking at ways to make money. I just feel, after last quarter, of getting in very early, I had to ride the MREITs down into the hole, before I came out of it. Truth is the MREITs (and MLPs) can be weak until the final run-up. AGNC is a bit strong, is very liquid, etc., but I don't think everyone always appreciates the trading patterns that are there to trade. It has nothing to do with whether you like the stock or not. I only like AGNC because it has been good to me, and there are very good people on this board that are enjoyable to trade with. Anyway, I am watching it now, deciding whether to go short.

    • lnhirst Jun 23, 2011 12:32 PM Flag

      "I am starting to feel like a short play is coming...."

      That is a very interesting psuedo-conclusion on your part.

    • I love following your options activities & thoughts, and have been meaning to go read about how to use options. Now it's high time I did it so I can better understand what you options guys are doing & perhaps try some myself as well!

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