As long as AGNC has shares authorized to sell, it won't hit 32 because they manage the stock price to stay within a range, and 32 is above the range. So, you're right about that, but doesn't everyone know that?
I'd be cautious selling - there was clearly a long line of folks waiting to buy after last div. It hardly dropped at all.
Given the prospect for continued low short rates, we may simply be seeing AGNC shifting to a more reasonable risk/reward.
Wouldn't you be willing to hold this at 17% div? 16% div? That's $33-35 or so.
Furthermore, if Congress screws up on debt (99% odds, there!) we'll have an environment where short term rates are held low (rather desperately) while long rates pop - perhaps some are starting to price that in.
zamanaha I agree with you on dividend return being nice at lower than 18% even down to 15% would be a good return given the other returns out there now. I see only default as being the only enemy that AGNC has at this time. If that is avioded and I still believe it will be then the LT rates on interest will last for at least a year or longer so AGNC will be money in the bank for a while. Unlike some on this board I see a default as the dark crash of share price but the odds remain against such a default.
Both parties have go to know the damage that would do and smart guys are screaming into the ears of the leaders to not let it happen or else. Some of those are big money to the party guys and those get listen too. They will push it to the brink unfortunely making the market a scary place to be but so far it has not shown any fear at all has it?
I have a 1% trailing stop loss on AGNC so I am not counting pennies in my trading as hitting the top or bottom is not a skill I live by. Trend buying and selling is just fine with me. Do I think from here to next dividend date the stock will sell at a lower price than it is now? If history is followed it will but this type of run up is not found on my charts so maybe history is being written?
If you look at the macd you will see that this still has a little left to run. I would think somewhere around $30.50. Anytime you can make a profit it is a good thing. I sold calls on my shares for the AUG 30, though I sold a little to soon and only got .35. It will soon be time to buy puts for any correction that may happen.
I will not buy until NLY comes with secondary any day, then see how AGNC will behave.
Hope to buy for around 29, just wait and see.
Next run to 30 or more instead of selling I am just going to sell calls then buy them back after another swing down.
See how it works, that way it is probably possible to get 30% or more annual gain with dividends.
But I am cautious, since I got in REITS game kind of late.
Really depends how long interest rates will remain low, which is connected to economy which will stink for at least few years.
The worst for Europe and rest of the world is still to come.
Most of the time $30 area I get out looking for small breaks to trade in from long side. This time however I am holding tight my 10K shares $28.27 cost until I get a feeling it's top out for a while. I am sure it's going to get to $31+ before the Ex Date. My reasoning to hold is I am also watching the strong early runs that IVR, HTS, NLY are making and seems to me a very strong up trend that has not given up to profit taking (yet). I don't see the day traders rushing in at the close to cover either. So with a strong up trend I am going to go with the flow until I start seeing sell offs at the close. I have 8k of IVR also in the mix. So far it's been on heck of a ride in only two weeks. Sure hate to make a pig out of myself. Like you I keep thinking we got over two months to Ex Date and seems early for such a run but maybe we moving up into a higher trading range. Love this stock!!!