The method that I gave you is good for all stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc., ... anything that has at least 5 years of history data from which to compute the 200 DMA and is standard deviation ("sigma"). I've even used it on variable life contracts.
Obviously it works better on some of those investments (because of their volatility) than others. I use it to track 50 prominent stocks (e.g., AGNC, CSCO, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, KMM, KMR/KMP, ERF, VGR, SLW, and many more) and 23 mutual funds (FLPSX, FCNTX, TREMX, FEQTX, among others).
This is funny. I see the 200 day MA line on the chart I linked to (yes, interactive) -- but I don't see it on the chart you linked to. And I don't see any way to add it either. Is Yahoo playing tricks on us?
Anyway, I do display the 200 day MA line on my chart and I do see the sell point on Oct 2009. But since this method doesn't help with AGNC, what is a stock you think it's good for?
First of all, you're using the Interactive chart rather than the Basic chart. Second, the red and green lines on your chart show the daily trading range; you do not have the 200 DMA shown on your chart. I can't do anything with your chart until you plot the 200 DMA on top of what is shown.
You'll note about a +33% dispersion from the 200 DMA (red line) occurred in Oct. 2009 --- that was a definite Sell signal. That's the ONLY buy or sell signal that AGNC has generated in the last 4 years; it hasn't had a (long-term) buy signal. [It has had two day-trade buy signals this year, however; each time dropping to $22+ from $27-$28.]
Resistance level of a stock is a perception, not an inherent characteristic. Thus, any plotting software that provides graphs of daily closing prices of the stock will give you that. The trained observer of those graphs will note the periods where the stock closes at about the same price each day within each period. Look at AGNC's 5-year chart at:
You will note that AGNC has a resistance level at about $30 (give or take a few pennies). It also exhibits some support (opposite of resistance) at about $25-$26). This support level appears to be much weaker than the $30 resistance level.
Yahoo Financial does that and the software is free to use. Excellent price!
Thanks Rim, Ben, and YBF.
I think technical analysis is BS too, but since so many people believe in it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
My biggest problem is that I sell too early. I sell a stock, then a week later, it's up a buck a share.
That's because the hedge funds massive computers know what you do and deliberately do the opposite to spite you. You're snake-bit.
All kidding aside, technical analysis gives you a better chance to buy and sell at more profitable prices than you can get most any other way. That's because GOOD TA is based on statistical probability --- the same math that Bettors use in Las Vegas (as does the House) and at the race tracks to determine the "odds" (inverse of probability).
At the very least, by following statistical probability-based TA, you will know what the odds are of making a profit from that trade. Thus, TA reduces RISK.
For a more detailed explanation (with graphs) see my Patent No. 7,299,205 .
(sorry, that was a test due to Yahoo rejecting this post)
TA is generally BS, but resistance levels exist.
This site lets you use "vol by price" as an overlay, which will give you a sense of where and how the money flowed when the price moved through a given level, which can help you deduce when the money will flow the other way.
I don't trust anyone's formula. This is something to be left to the eyeball.