Here we go guys. With the market in tatters, and AGNC almost guarenteed a dividend this quarter of 1.40 per share, look for the runup to 29.92 to 30.30 to start this week. Imo, AGNC's runup will be strong and swift because of those with much cash on the sidelines. It seems as though there is currently a market-wide selloff possibly due to tax-loss selloffs and to overall insecurity in market direction. AGNC may be "safe haven" this month because of these things, the ongoing congress debacle, and perceived weakness in the European and Asian markets. What may once to have seemed like a gamble with REITs investment may, for at least the remainder of this quarter, a nice place to park some sidelined cash. In short,imo, the runup starts this week.
If AGNC does not break 29 during the div. run it could be its swansong. The other REITs which failed to have decent div. runups allowing subsequent spos have since languished at pps's lower than their most recent spos of months ago. AGNC needs a good runup and a spo shortly thereafter to maintain enough capital with which to buy more MBSs. Failure to have a spo in the 1st qtr.2012(or sooner) could have similar results of other REITs which failed to do so 3 and 6 mths ago. RE: CIM TWO NLY etc.
Yes. Time will tell. I am confident that AGNC gets into the mid/high 29's, but we may see the 30+ pop. The divvy hounds may have some cash "trapped" in an underwater stock and were hopingm to at least break even before AGNC's divvy run. Shortly decisions will be made to take tax losses and recoup with the almost sure 1.40 div. I think many folks have already lightened their load. That is why I think people will get in on the cheap before the dividend announcement. The div. announcement should be the end of the 2nd weeek of Dec.,consequently the time is now to buy for the runup.We shall surely see and very soon.Imo.