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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • Sanemann Sanemann Dec 7, 2011 9:39 AM Flag

    Time to Sell?

    My gains are equal to estimated dividends, (based on 1.40) should I sell at these levels and buy back after X-Divvy date? I know there's a couple of schools of thought on this strategy, would like to hear opinions...

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    • Greeks taking money out of banks. Euro has potential of colapsing, or some short term fix happens. AGNC can go either way. I can see why many here sold their options early.

    • The mid-year dates have fluctuated more than the year-end date has.

      Personally, I think they aim to have the record date on the 31st each year, which makes the ex-div the 29th.

      But this year the record date is a Saturday, and it hasn't been the past three years.

      So if they move the record date back to the 30th, the ex date will move back to the 28th.

      The 16th is a Friday, which was good enough before, and it's already earlier than the past announcements, so there's no reason to move it even earlier.

      Because the record date is a day earlier, the pay date could move back a day, too, so January 26th looks good for it, though there's not really a lot of stress on that in any direction, so this is just for consistency's sake.

      Announcement on the 16th, ex-div on the 28th, record on the 30th, pay on the 26th. That's my guess.

      We should find a way to get the CBOE to front an index option future swap on the dates. Been a while since we had a fresh pair of dice...

    • Saneman,

      Your gains have covered/exceeded the estimated $1.40 ex-divvy during the last week of December 2011.

      Take profits now and you don't have to wait until late January 2012 for the divvy to hit your account.

      Instead, you have a capital gain. Capital gains worth more than dividends IMO to offset any other losses you might incur elsewhere.

      Hold through ex-divvy and AGNC falls back to 27.xx. Cycle doesn't always repeat to its highs.

      Notice each time it got harder to go over 30.xx.

      Nowadays, few buy and hold ETF/stocks for very long. Too much can go wrong on the downside.

      Just my 2 cents.

    • My price equal to divi is 29 based on my purchase price. I believe we go higher into the divi run. Maybe mid 29's, could be higher. I'm holding until at least the announcement around Dec 16/19. Will reevaluate at that time.

    • Pre-mature

 
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