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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • xionrevolutions xionrevolutions Dec 13, 2011 1:40 PM Flag

    Is the Div-Run running out of gas?

    I have exited at $29, I'm having a strong gut feeling about all this, that something is not right. I have sold all of my Jan $28 Calls with a loss 0.24. I will never again overpay for those calls, ever again.

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    • X tath was premature. Look at the Dec 2010 agnc chart, and the .AGNC110122C29 chart, the bulls and bears fought pitched battles in Dec 2010. It's far from over, this is just the 1st day after announcement.

      There are a lot of parallels, in the 2010 version the CF facility was announced in Nov and the SPO in Dec, whereas in the 2011 sequel the plot twist puts the SPO in Nov and the CF in Dec. In the 2010 version open interest on .AGNC110122C29 doubled in the day after the SPO announcement, the bears were sure they could write them safely because they believed they would expire worthless. Once the div was announced in 2010 AGNC jumped to $30 and the $29 calls went from 35 cents on Dec 16th to $1.05 on Dec 20th. Who know how the 2011 sequels will unfold, but safe to say 50 cent daily moves won't be uncommon. and AGNC topping $30 is quite possible.

    • Hi X, I don't know what you paid for your Jan $28's, I bought mine for 87.5 cents on Oct 27th and 28th after the SPO, held them for a few months and sold them for 95 cents on December 16th. Then I foolishly shorted them for $1.10 on Dec 19th and got assigned, now I have to wait for a flash crash or an SPO to cover.

 
AGNC
20.75-0.05(-0.24%)May 22 4:00 PMEDT