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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Dec 21, 2011 2:55 PM Flag

    Get Ready

    I predicted the winter solstice(today) as being the announcement after hours for an SPO. Looks like we might have to wait until Th or Fri when the PPS hits 28.50+. It certainly recovered quickly.

    Apparently many believe we won't have an SPO as there are still many buyers. We'll see....

    Good luck!

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    • Will we top up tomorrow if it gets higher? This is actually good fun, and we have, as a board mde this play before and waited for days before the event. I remember some guy saying he had put all of his chips on the table. We all felt bad for him. He grumbled for an entire week, and ultimately it happened, but will we all chase it higher? i have about 12k on it the table, march 31s.

      i think we have a few more days of this, but i am going with doc, and say tomorrow.

    • Hey Doc,

      Looks like the late afternoon Dow blunted AGNC's momentum. I sent you an e-mail about shorting the stock, but now I'm leaning towards dipping into the Jan28 puts (nod to YBF) when AGNC's price reaches SPO territory. I'm convinced that pps will drop by at least $1.00 post SPO. The Jan28 puts calculate to be worth the following:

      pps=27.40, put=.84
      pps=27.50, put=.78
      pps=27.60, put=.72
      pps=27.70, put=.66
      pps=27.80, put=.60

      With the current price at B.35-A.40, a pps of 27.50 looks like a double. I'll probably be buying when AGNC's price exceeds 28.52. At 28.52, the puts should go for .25-.30.

      Your thoughts?

    • <<I predicted the winter solstice(today) as being the announcement after hours for an SPO>>

      SPO is truly doubtful this soon. This run up is likely from a combination of

      1) capital gainers who sold just prior to Ex-Div and are stuck sidelined with cash
      2) Heavy short interest who anticipated a deep sell off post-ex-div
      3) An overall market that shows strong analytical signs of a near-term run that could likely last through January and take the S&P to about 1400.

      Following yesterday’s huge gap up which held into the close (bullish), today’s market action tried to correct and after being down over 100 points has been recovering ever since. The year-end profit taking may be over and we are now seeing a general “reload” of quality issues going into 2012. They apparently do not include IVR, surprise surprise .

    • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Dec 21, 2011 2:58 PM Flag

      Am ready. Bought Jan 28 Puts an hour ago. 65 cents. Expecting 50% ROI at least.

22.395-0.055(-0.24%)10:13 AMEDT

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