Who (if anyone) thinks a "Dogs of the Reits" approach might have any merit?
In 2011 in my little basket of reits CYS (+1.78%) and AGNC (-2.30%) were the two best performers, while CIM (-38.9%) and IVR (-35.7%) were the worst performers (not factoring in the dividends.
Anyone venture an opinion on whether the two "Dogs" are likely to outperform the stars in 2012?
Alternatively, anyone prefer prosecco to champagne?
Well of course the dividends must be factored. having said that I would prefer NLY as the alternate to AGNC. Not replacement though. I have looked at IVR and decided to pass.
Pro Seco of the first rank are excellent drinkers imo but only when in Europe, they don't travel as well. Agreat sparkler from California is Schramsberg Mirabelle Rose brut. is nice but they are all excellent.
nothing wrong with buying lottery once in a while. If I had the guts to hold on to my 145 NFLX puts last year, I would be sitting on 200k pile of cash just a month later. Sometime your instinct may be right, just have to stick with it for a bit. I still have 200 calls sold on AGNC, I expect with or without an SPO, this thing has to go down before it can go up.
IVR is at least tradeable because you can trust their reported BV and other financial reporting. You can look at their numbers (honestly reported) and listen to what they have to say qualitatively (somewhat dodgy lately) and make an informed decision about risk/reward. CIM on the other hand cannot be traded because they fall into the category of serially lying earnings manipulators. With that class of company one must take their reported numbers handicap just how much they are lying with the numbers as well as just how much they are lying qualitatively during conference calls. Were CIM yielding 25% it still wouldn't be worth the effort and risk to me, it's untradeable.
I admit that IVR somewhat joined CIM in the liars sin bin on the 3q11 cc in the evasive and misleading manner in which they replied to analyst questions about over-hedging. But that was their first time and the dissembling was done by a new and obviously nervous presenter. I choose to give them a pass on that cc and assume that they will get back to their previous forthright presentation style. IMO one time mis-statements during Q&A are less damning than CIM's repeated premeditated lies during the body of the presentation.
Happy New Year Quad!!
How's the weather on the other side? I hear you are due for a cold week.
>>Anyone venture an opinion on whether the two "Dogs" are likely to outperform the stars in 2012?>>
I thought someone would pick up the sheep, but not yet, so I'll play:
"Dogs of the DOW" make some basic assumptions. Number one, that the securities will remain in the DOW. They have to pass certain requirements to stay in the DOW, as you know.
Unfortunately, the requirements to remain a mReit are not as rigorous; otherwise, I think Cim, IVR, HTS and others would be out or on their way out.
I will only trade a security with an edge. IVR and CIM and HTS and NLY for that matter have been tested and found wanting. They would be sold at the Market(Fish) as Flounder.
So how do you trade? Where is the edge. Is the only edge that they have been beaten down? Usually stocks with an edge because they have been beaten down still retain good earnings, good, transparent management, consistent or rising dividends, and stable BV.
The above stocks have none of those items. So how would one play these stocks? Buy them because they are losers or short them to watch the implosion continue.
I think I will post this message to the respective mReit Message Boards. I have been reading those boards though and many of the share holders feel the same as I do.
Why in the world don't they buy a winner??!! Cut losses while they still can. AGNC's (BATESAT -.50) Rules...(27.50-29.50). It screams, "FREE MONEY". Buy at 27.50 sell @ 29+. Collect the 1.40 dividend two to four times a Q.
I guess you've figured I am not going to be a source of exciting info on IVR and CIM...;-) I actually looked at both for about 45 minutes to figure out the best option stategy, but without an edge I am just like those mReits...floundering...
Good Luck and Best wishes for much heath and happiness in 2012!!!
HNY Doc -
Can't say I like IVR or CIM, just wondering whether something that simple might work. Certainly no edge in that approach generally - and nothing in particular as to CIM. IVR may be a bit different in that it's been trashed perhaps beyond what was deserved (maybe not) so the "edge" is the merely the psychological countertrade.
I wish you had addressed the more important question of which bubbly has the edge.....