Established in October 2009 at $30.90 price is inching above ($30.37 today) the slightly declining trend line. Current resistance levels are $30.62, $30.76 and $30.90. MACD is putting in a higher bar, RSI is at 76.46 and Stoch. continues to trend up ....all with reckless abandon.
IMO the SPO happens on or shortly after ex-date at or above $30.56 ...taking into account the $1.25 dividend and approx. 5.5% discount which includes the soft costs associated with same. But, thats only if Gary's "appetite" suddenly changes.
Gann analysis puts the turn date at 03/07/2012 at a pre-ex date PPS of $30.76
We all know Al well enough to know that he "knows better," but that you were kind of pushing his buttons this AM and he felt the need to perry your thrusting epee.
How about a 30.25 pre-X., a 29.00 post X, and a 28 SPO? Who knows (all prices are w/o cumulative dividends :-))?
Once the new buyers find out that (contrary to logic) the price drops after the SPO and that (according to logic but something they just can't appreciate) the price drops the amount of the dividend on ex-Div date, they will bail. This will drop the price to $27 for a short while.
That's my comment.
Hey Jim R -
LOL - I guess I'm going to be the first to thank you for your usual excellent TA!!!!
Caught off guard or not, IMO you're still one of the best on this board!
You don't happen to live on Gorden Dr in the Port Royal area do you???
Good evening, Salty. Thank you for the compliment...much appreciated!
Sounds like you are familiar with Naples. I live in a community called Pelican Marsh in North Naples next to Mercato and just several blocks off the beach.
We're you able to catch the breakout of MTGE the other day? It appears as if $22.86 is in the horizon. I am expecting a nice dividend announcement followed by a run into the 19th -20th March and a possible SPO.
There's no other stock named AGNC. And until recently, there was no other stock paying nearly so much yield. So there's nobody to shop-around after.
And 5%, for what may be 10 minutes' work, in an industry where raiders spend months buying and dismantling companies for pennies per share, is a gigantic IRR. It's the sort of thing that sets all that greasy Wall-Street hair on fire.
>>" ... 5% discount is still rather high ... "
Think about it as a consumer: someone offers you a 5% discount on TV or iPad or cell phone; are you going to jump at that or maybe shop around for a better deal? As discounts go in a struggling economy, 5% isn't much ... just enough to make the buyer consider it.
None of that takes into account analysts estimates of $32-$33 as a target price this year. Nor does it take into account current AGNC euphoria in buying shares.
I believe that target price is a bigger driver than any other factor now.
<<Nor does it take into account current AGNC euphoria in buying shares.>>
Jim's TA takes into account the euphoria, and more.
<<I believe that target price is a bigger driver than any other factor now.>>
Sorry. There's something a whole lot different going on here.
I really doubt that buyers, retail or insty, are on the lookout for stocks based on their target prices, especially when AGNC's is only 7-9% over its current PPS. (There's probably hundreds of stocks with target prices 20-30% higher than their current PPS.)
My bet, if I was a conspiracy theorist: They're taking it up, so the SPO can be nice and fat after ex-div, and so the MMs can make back some of the money lost on those MAR puts (to Ben and others). A lot of mutual back-scratching goin' on.