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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • mikeinfwtx mikeinfwtx Feb 13, 2012 4:47 PM Flag

    Peeking above the trendline

    If the SPO happens just after the x-DIV on 3/5 then the price action may look like this: \\

    $30.56/Share (3/5) - 1.25(X-DIV) - 1.10 (SPO) = $28.21

    Comments?

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    • Once the new buyers find out that (contrary to logic) the price drops after the SPO and that (according to logic but something they just can't appreciate) the price drops the amount of the dividend on ex-Div date, they will bail. This will drop the price to $27 for a short while.

      That's my comment.

      • 1 Reply to inthegameformoney
      • Hey Inthegame...,

        >>This will drop the price to $27 for a short while.>>

        I hope you are right..I want to be the first in line for some June options. Sweet. However, IMO, I believe any "bleeding" of the PPS, below 29 will be such an attractant to the sharks in the water, that there will be a feeding frenzy never B4 seen with AGNC.

        Somehow, these folks have been led to believe(yield, time of year, history) that this is "free" money. Remember "Perception" trumps reality. At a lower PPS than the PPS minus 1.25, buying will occur in earnest. Look at this volume since the Earnings and dividend reduction announcement on the 6th:

        http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AGNC&a=01&b=2&c=2012&d=01&e=13&f=2012&g=d

        Imagine if we had good Earnings and an increase in the dividend...;-)

        Look at last year's March run(30.67) and then June's run(look to the year's intraday high on June 9th..30.76). Within three days after March's spo we were up from 28+ to 29+. Within 8 days of June spo we were up from 28 to 30+. Never saw your 27 right after Ex/spo.

        If we do see your 27, I think it will be one of those rare Golden moments in trading when all the stars align...I am skeptical as those moments don't happen very often. I will try to hedge my urges at that moment with a claw hammer. I think that might work.

        Good luck,

        DocReits

 
AGNC
19.26+0.04(+0.21%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT